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Replies to #64340 on Biotech Values
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zipjet

07/16/08 9:51 PM

#64349 RE: corpstrat #64340

>>I'm reading Nassem Taleb's Black Swan.

You may want to consider applying his triple opacity to biotech investing. At least I think it has application.

ij
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Biowatch

07/16/08 9:55 PM

#64350 RE: corpstrat #64340

>>small biotechs with tiny market caps, running short on cash<<

A number of small biotechs face NASDAQ delisting, and reverse splits or horrible refinancing deals won't help their market cap.

Some marginal biotechs get by because a core of relatively small investors "keep the faith" and hold their shares. As the general economy slows down, it's harder to keep dipping in the same well for more cash. It's also harder to convince new investors that "this time it will be different."

It takes a long time to bring a new bio/pharma idea to market. Big pharma used to do their R&D in-house, where few knew how many projects fell by the wayside. Now, biotechs make the pitfalls, and the money involved, painfully clear to the average investor.

There is so much time between meaningful newsworthy events in drug development that imagination, innuendo, and speculation have ample opportunity to run rampant.

The thought that MY.FAVE stock could be the next AMGN or DNA keeps many people invested.