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TJ Parker

05/10/04 8:31 PM

#242699 RE: Redart #242691

well, looking at the link on the message following yours,

http://www.marketvolume.com/content/products/mktsum/mktsum_adv_dcln.asp

it looks like most of the indices actually had more like 1:5 or 1:6 advancing volume to declining volume, except for the nasdaq, which was closer to 1:2.5 ... the exception being the nyse. however, the nyse has all of those interest sensitive reits, etc ...

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on the other hand, prechter was interviewed on cnbc, and he warned viewers that he's always interviewed at the yearly low ...
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Paul Shread

05/11/04 9:29 AM

#242805 RE: Redart #242691

Yes, 90% points lost is also part of the equation, but they're rarely that far apart.

A 90% downside day followed within a week of a 90% upside day, like we got at the March 2003 bottom, has had only one failure that I know of, in late August 1990. It's a rare indicator, but appears to be a very good one.

Wish Paul Desmond had come up with something that identifies tops as well...