first volume isn't there. more volume on the right shoulder than the left shoulder. the downslope on the neckline means a lot of market weakness so if and when the neck breaks it will take a while and more of the move has been made so don't expect a target equal to head minus neckline.
This could be setting up for a bear trap reversal. OEX grinds down below 560 to break the neck and then reverses. That could fuel a good bounce.