With pure R&D plays, have to value the projects as bets in light of the latest info, past setbacks very much included and the probabilities of future setbacks or progress taken into account, right? Yes, it's risky - that's the nature of it. Can one pick more winning bets than losers is the question.
The game would be totally unattractive if companies get snapped up for less than their pipeline is worth, probably because of financing drying up under the influence of the hedge funds' generic short bets on biotech. So far, not much evidence of that?
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