Replies to post #240139 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mainehiker]

did i miss something, you mentoined tail end of cyc bull....are you still feeling we get a lsat leg up in to summer, ie no change to map (as i thought)(i knew you went extra caustios of late and were considering tossing roadmap, but thought you hadnt)

[Fred Langford]

Zeev,

Did VECO join the the list of broken stocks?

Fred

[langostino]

expand on "cyclical bull"?

supposedly, these guys had eps power of $1+ on the level of phone sales as were expected this year. looks as though they stuffed the channel a bit and saw margin erosion (a deadly double threat), but the "end of a cyclical bull" would suggest less phones next year than this year, including in India, etc.

No doubt phone sales this past year got an extra boost from "cameras and colors", and we might see more modest growth in '04/'05, but heck, CDMA and 3G are just beginning to ramp, and it's not like the developing countries are going to be buying less phones.

I can understand if the "cyclical bull" comment is a convenient label to "reinforce" your belief that it's not good to trade "broken stocks". I'm trying to decipher how much substance is behind the "cyclical bull" comment and how much it's just an off-the-cuff possible observation that would tend to match the chart you see.

I'm afraid, while I appreciate your affinity for brevity, the notion that all important information can be conveyed in a few sentences just ain't true.

[TREND1]

Zeev
You wrote
and I think that we are at the tail end of the cyclical bull


Question?
(1) Do you mean for that stock?
(2) Do you mean for the entire market?
(3) Do you mean ????