Replies to post #11284 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[DragonBits]

REST went down to 25 cents and got taken out at about 4 times cash levels, or 6 times revenue. Its revenue per share was 0.27

GTC cash is about 11 cents per share, their revenue about 15 cents per share.

(Ignoring debt in both stocks.)

So if GTC went down to 1/2 cash, that would be 6 cents, or if it went down to about where its revenue was, that would be 15 cents, and then got taken over at either 25 cents or 90 cents per share, that would be close to REST.

So when you say an acquisition like Restore Medical (REST) received, I would bet that isn't what you were thinking.

But if GTC gets no partner, does another financing for $4 million at 40 cents, then RS at 1:20, I could see 15 cents being achieved as the low for this year. And I think it plausible that it could get a buyout offer for $100 million.

[waynebio]

<Weak position only if there is one potential partner/bidder>

Yes true, but does 6+ months of negotiations make it look like there is no sense of urgency on the part of the partners? Makes it look like there are either 0 or 1 serious partners since 6+ months looks like there is no competition among potential partners. If there were 2 or more serious parterners (serious meaning acceptable proposals for GTCB), then GTCB would just have to set a deadline date for the partners to make up their mind about their best proposal and GTCB would choose the best available offer. If this were the case we would have a partner by now for US AT3. If there is only one serious partner, they would not be too worried about waiting because as time goes by the terms would get better since GTCB just gets more desparate with its cash burn. Remember the Bum story?

[DewDiligence]

>Kind of surprised Pharming hasn't made a move to acquire GTC.<

Pharming tried to get GTC to entertain merger discussions in early 2006, after the initial EMEA rejection of ATryn. I do not know how far they got.