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Replies to #62873 on Biotech Values
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microcapfun

05/23/08 12:07 AM

#62877 RE: DewDiligence #62873

Geron

>>I presume that MRK and Dr. Stephen Friend would have the inside track (#msg-7088215).<< (Dew - 2008)

From (#msg-7088215):
>>Getting back to the main point… if Dr. Friend thinks Geron’s telomerase science is as worthy an endeavor as he makes it sound in the bold-faced quotation above, perhaps GERN is a company with some bona fide investment appeal.<< (Dew - 2005)


Perhaps. But are you aware that Merck decided not to exercise its exclusive option to inlicense Geron's telomerase vaccine GRNVAC1? Essentially they paid $1M for a right of first refusal in 2005 and Geron pathetically extended it for free, but in the end Merck let it expire.

Merck is still working on using telomerase as an antigen along with their liposomal and adenoviral vaccine platforms, but it is interesting that they took a pass on Geron's vaccine.


Geron really looks pretty ugly these days. The dendritic cell-based telomerase vaccine was in some kind of haitus for 5 years and then clinical trials started over - in a different indication. (The CEO has talked about dumping it in favor of an off-the-shelf version using dendritic cells derived from ESCs - talk about combining untested technologies - telomerase, cancer vaccines AND dendritic cells derived from ESCs!) Their telomerase inhibition 'drug' GRN163L has generated a lot of AEs in clinical trial - but no evidence of efficacy or even telomerase inhibition. Their telomerase activator product for certain degenerative diseases didn't work out in preclinical and they are back to square one with that. And of course you know the recent news on their hoped-for first embryonic cell derived product, i.e. the clinical hold ...

All the more reason they should just sell out their great IP in telomerase, cloning and ESCs to the highest bidder.

Isn't 18 years and more than half a billion dollars burned enough?

They have revenues of ~$4M/year and are still only in Phase 1/2a trials! Their share count has gone up about a factor of 8 in the 12 years since their IPO and their stock price has gone down by 50%.

What a bunch of losers! But they could probably get a billion dollars if they sell their IP. What are they waiting for???

micro

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amylinterry

05/23/08 10:45 AM

#62885 RE: DewDiligence #62873

Shakeup or Buyout at AMLN ( Amylin Pharma)

There are 4 entities that have gobbled up all AMLN shares for a voting majority and this does not include Playmakers Goldman Sachs (#5) and Carl Icahn (#6)

Icahn has been pushing down the SP and swallowing every share the last 2 weeks.He also has had "discussions with management " which yesterday yielded the resignation of the longtime head of R&D - Dr A Baron.

Amylin has a great pipline is undervalued and owned by just a few players so the Icahn story is great fodder for speculation. but SP is increasing is one of the things that WILL happen in the not too distant future. A buyout of course first comes to mind. Lilly would love the Diabetes franchaise and everyone wants the Obesity franchaise.
The new 600 M manufacturing plant is absolutely huge and is
producing LAR.

Icahn will not stand for the flattening sales seen for Byetta BID when LAR (long acting Byetta comes to market( 1-2 years depending). Many think Lilly itself is the cause of stalling sales protecting its Insulin franchaise till LAR,but Icahn is making plans now.

Go ahead try and Buy some : ))