Replies to post #235533 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Bullwinkle]

Just so you are aware I did edit my reply and just basically mentioned that 2005 is another story and too far off for me to come to any conclusions at this point in time... I know you get this all of the time, but has your roadmap changed at all with the recent volatility and all that comes with it or are you still looking for new highs to develop from this current run? TIA and as always I appreciate what you do hear, the best board and members on the web!

[JLSegal]

Zeev, surprisingly, OVTI has not been performing well, given last week's reports of record strong camera phone sales. There is discussion on Yahoo that this may be because word is getting out that large companies are now making (their own) CMOS image sensors.....ie., Morotola, Samsung, Micron.

FWIW, just before the close nearly one thousand contracts of the OVTI May 25 puts were purchased at the ask.
Something doesn't seem right here. Not wanting to experience another SNDK/LEXR, I sold the few shares I had at a slight loss.

Any thoughts? Think this is valid reason to avoid OVTI now, or, perhaps shorts attempting to drive the price down?

[titan3]

from SI/Marketswing:
Maudlin:

<<"Jim Bianco said today he thinks they will raise rates at the June meeting. Jim, my friend, I will take that bet. In fact, I will raise and say not even in August. Next week we look at my reasoning. And it does make a difference as to how you position yourself.">>

Can you imagine this? Each time we expect the raise, it doesn't happen? Will the markets be happy if there is no rate hike until after the elections?

[tradeopt]

Zeev, do you have similar summer approx targets
for
Spx (spy) , DOW(dia) ,MDY (midcap) RUT( iwm) ,
TNX ( 10y yr yield), drg (pph).

TA : TNX weekly has broken above down trend line
from year 2000. Also making rev. H & S. Also Fib
retracemtn point higher if truly breking out now.
Fundamental: I can not see rates going up
as long as we r in secular bear market. There is
access money( big insurance companies) seeking safe home.


IMO your projections
for next few months may get modified if TNX starts
moving up sharply. Unless TNX has already shot up too
much and starts moving down in which case we get
the rally you expect. In that case, rate sensetive sector
which corrected a lot may get some bid.

With your projection (if i understood correctly)
of Naz leading the next rally, move sideways for 3 months while Dow catches up:
Is it more of same money rotating thru sectors ?
i.e. does one need to time the sector move ?
or is rising tide lifting all boats just
at differnt times.

Thank you in advance for your efforts to
educate us all. You have no idea how much
it has helped me ...

----------
by the way, sndk has 8 bux in cash ?
When doing FA study do you subtract the 8 bux
from current price and then compute the
fundamental price ?

I m an index player.. occasionaly buying good stks when
they come down a lot like sndk, intc etc.