Next week and months thoughts here.
Here is what is going on: Stocks have put in a multi-week top this week, our phi mate and Fibonacci turn window week, and have started a decline that should last several weeks. How low stocks go is important for the long-term forecast. Should this decline result in lower prices than the January lows, then the Bear market is intact. Should this decline fail to take out those January lows, then we must examine the quality of the subsequent rally to see if the Bear is over. A failure to take out the January lows, followed by a rally to new highs would confirm a new Bull market has started.
Most of our key trend-finder indicators are now on sells, or very close, and the Weekly and Daily Full Stochastic indicators for most major stock indices are also signaling sell here. Our next phi mate turn date is early June, so it is possible we go lower into that date. One key to watch for is a second Hindenburg Omen observation. Currently we only have one observation. If we get a second, then we are at greater than normal risk of a stock plunge, and it is a good bet the January lows will be taken out. Should we not get a confirming, second observation, then it is a good bet stocks will not take out the January lows. Pretty simple.
Short-term, we could see a small rebound rally early next week, according to the 30 minute Full Stochastics reading for the Industrials.
Oil set another new all-time high Friday.
Have a great weekend, and wonderful Mother's Day.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
