Replies to post #62394 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

HCV: Most Likely to Succeed (IMHO)

[Added link to “PROVE-1/2 Made Simple” post.]


The following paragraphs are in descending order of likelihood of success. (Paragraphs 6 and 8 are “catchall” groupings that do not explicitly mention all of the applicable drug candidates within the grouping.)

1. Telaprevir (VRTX/JNJ; phase-3): #msg-29019931 (PROVE-1/2 made simple), #msg-28746843 (PROVE-1/2 detailed results), #msg-26228377 (overview of phase-3 program), #msg-28749322 (interim results from ‘107’ study).

2. ITMN-191/R7227 (ITMN/Roche; phase 1b): #msg-28091523; and Boceprevir (SGP; phase-2): #msg-28820981.

3. Locteron (OctoPlus/Biolex; phase-2), a long-acting interferon made in transgenic plants: #msg-28786162.

4. Various oral agents in phase-1 or phase-2 trials that use an established MoA. These include TMC435350 (Medivir/JNJ; entering phase-2): #msg-28785830; R7128 (VRUS/Roche; phase-1b): #msg-28837612; and R1626 (Roche; phase-2): #msg-28821034.

5. The “other” interferons: Albuferon (HGSI/NVS; dose reduced in phase-3): #msg-26199740; IFN-alpha-XL (FLML; phase-1): #msg-28837983; and IFN-Lambda (ZGEN; phase-1): #msg-16610804. I’m excluding MAXY’s Maxy-alpha, which has been on life support since Roche dropped the program: #msg-24801678.

6. Miscellaneous very-early-stage compounds that use an established MoA; e.g. IDX184 from IDIX: #msg-28715477, #msg-26915921.

7. GS9190 (GILD; phase-1), which has caused QT-prolongation: #msg-24268443.

8. Miscellaneous early-stage compounds that use novel MoA’s; e.g. Sirna-034, now owned by MRK: #msg-12665661.

JMHO, FWIW