Replies to post #273296 on $Stock*Shop*Charts*News*Option$

[Stock Lobster]

IAN: Oil and Gas – Decisive Factors for Rise and Fall of Powers

Dieter Farwick
17 Apr 2008

"Energy security should be number one on any national and international agenda.".

Under the label of energy security, WSN has covered the ever-decreasing availability of oil and gas and the simultaneously drastic increase in demand for them worldwide. Long before both lines will meet in 3-4 decades from now, the competition between the great consumers – China, India, Japan, Europe and the US - will sharpen , while the oil and gas producers will try to get the most out the reserves – as long as they last.

It is amazing that the serious discussion about this inevitable conflict does not spill over from closed circles of experts into the broader public and political arena. Energy security should be number one on any national and international agenda. It is not. For example, the European Union is one of the greatest consumers of oil and gas, making it very dependent on the producers – e.g. Russia - but there is no serious initiative to develop a common strategy. To make things even worse, the oil and gas reserves sit in politically fragile regions and great distances have to be covered by vulnerable “bloodlines.”

There is another factor: In many of the regions with oil and gas reserves, there are religious and ethnic groups in power or which might come to power within the coming 3 – 4 decades, and these groups are not too friendly to Western countries. They might prefer to export their oil and gas to Asia – especially to China, India and Japan.

As the production costs to produce oil and gas between a country’s peak and its point of depletion increase, the competition between the consumers will sharpen and the economies of the consumer countries will suffer more and more. This is true for societies, too, for which individual mobility will become increasingly expensive.

There is no hope that reducing the consumption and enforcing the usage of renewable energies will close the widening gap to affordable prices. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that many countries are planning and building numerous nuclear power plants as a substitute for oil and gas against the resistance of people who do want to recognize the consequences of threatened energy security already in their lifetimes.

Our South East Europe Editor, Ioannis Michelatos, has covered the issue of energy security in several articles for WSN. The Balkans will win new significance as a transit region for oil and gas – an incentive to solve existing problems as soon as possible. Ioannis Michelatos offers a sound analysis and recommendations for the way ahead.

This is equally true for a book written by a member of the WSN International Advisory Board, BrigGen (ret) Dr. Muhammad Aslam Khan Niazi (Makni), Islamabad, Pakistan. I add a review about his new book "The New Great Game - Oil and Gas Politics in Central Eurasia" (see www.RaiderPublishing.com) which is a must read not just for experts but for all people who think about their own and their following generations’ future.

It might help to ask politicians why the topic of energy security does not get the political attention that it deserves. Oil and gas are not “nice to have” but a “ must have” for all of us before mankind finds an affordable replacement.

http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=1976&page=1

[Stock Lobster]

The Street: World Food Shortage Stock Plays

04/17/08 - 09:28 AM EDT
DD DE EDEN GE MON POT TRA

Stockpickr Staff

Food prices have risen more than 40% in the past 12 months. And the sharp rise has, in part, led to food shortages that have prompted massive riots in Egypt, Haiti and China. And now the UN is forecasting more food shortages.

With about 40% of the world's agricultural land seriously degraded and oil prices at record levels, prices of feed poultry and dairy cows are causing prices of wheat, soybean and maize to skyrocket.

With overall crop outputs lagging demand, desperate farmers who wish to capitalize off record prices are now using a wide array of organic and inorganic fertilizers to help boost production.

With this in mind, we have set up a World Food Shortage Plays portfolio on Stockpickr.com to help develop stock ideas to capitalize off this global trend.

Making the list is Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), which manufactures and sells solid and liquid phosphate fertilizers and animal feed supplements worldwide.

Potash is by far the world's largest producer of potash, producing 23% of the world's supply. The potash fertilizer comes from mines concentrated primarily in northern Canada, which gives the Saskatchewan-based company direct access to these mines.

In fact, it also controls almost all of the world's unused supply, and has deliberately held back production to keep potash prices high. It is also the third largest phosphate producer and fourth largest nitrogen producer.

Another stock that makes the list is Eden Biosciences (EDEN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), a tiny company that markets Messenger, a highly effective and revolutionary gardening product.

If you talk to any serious horticulturalists, they likely love the Messenger product. Discovered at Cornell University's School of Agriculture, Messenger taps protein molecules inside plants that trigger certain responses in cells that help them grow, to make them resist disease and to produce additional flower and fruit.

Eden has the exclusive marketing rights to the product through its home and garden distribution business. If more gardeners are forced to get more return from their plants, this micro-cap stock is likely to benefit.

Another company to keep an eye on is Terra Industries (TRA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), which produces various nitrogen fertilizers.

Terra Industries is one of the cheapest fertilizer companies in the sector with a forward P/E of 11.6. Also worth pointing out is its gigantic short position of 31%.

For more stock ideas, check out the World Food Shortage Plays, which includes Deere (DE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), Monsanto (MON - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and DuPont (DD - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) on Stockpickr.com.

Also, here are some Freakonomics Clean Water Stocks, including GE (GE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr).

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider Eden Biosciences to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

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http://www.thestreet.com/s/world-food-shortage-stock-plays/newsanalysis/stockpickr/10412327.html?puc=googlen&cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

[Stock Lobster]

BL: Citigroup Shareholders' Relief May Not Last as Capital Dwindles

By Bradley Keoun

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc.'s investors, cheered by a $5.1 billion first-quarter loss that wasn't as big as they feared, now must watch out for asset sales, a dividend cut and an infusion of outside investment as the bank's capital dwindles.

Citigroup's so-called Tier 1 capital ratio -- a measure of its ability to withstand loan losses -- fell to 7.7 percent at the end of March, the New York-based bank said yesterday. Citigroup says it needs a 7.5 percent ratio to provide a margin of safety and preserve its credit ratings.

The bank's shares surged 4.5 percent yesterday after it reported $16 billion of asset writedowns during the quarter, less than some analysts expected. The writedowns burned through much of the $30 billion of capital Citigroup has raised since late last year, leaving it vulnerable to further charges and loan-loss provisions.

``We're in a recession, they have a huge consumer book, and there's huge double-digit-billion provisions that they're going to have to take in the next 18 months to two years,'' CreditSights Inc. analyst David Hendler said. ``They're undercapitalized for their risk.''

A weakening U.S. economy and rising consumer delinquencies have forced Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit and Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden to back away from assurances earlier this year that the bank didn't need to raise more capital. In January, Crittenden said Citigroup ``stress-tested'' its assumptions under ``multiple recessionary scenarios.''

`No Silver Bullets'

Asked yesterday if the bank might seek an additional infusion, Crittenden said, ``You can never say never.''

``This is a difficult business environment,'' Crittenden said on a conference call with analysts and investors. ``There are no easy solutions here, no silver bullets.''

Citigroup raised capital in December and January by selling stakes to investment funds controlled by foreign governments including Abu Dhabi, Korea and Kuwait. The infusion helped boost Citigroup's Tier 1 ratio to 8.8 percent by Jan. 22 from 7.1 percent at the end of the year.

The first-quarter loss was second in size in the bank's 196- year history only to the record $9.88 billion reported in the previous period. It wiped out so much capital that Citigroup may have to find outside investors or cut the dividend, Hendler said.

Citigroup in January slashed its dividend by 41 percent, the first reduction since the early 1990s.

Downgrades

Standard & Poor's said it is reviewing Citigroup's rating for a possible downgrade, noting that earnings may be further depressed by loss reserves on the bank's loan portfolio. Fitch Ratings lowered the company's rating one level to AA- from AA, with a negative outlook. Fitch cited deteriorating earnings in the consumer business and investment bank losses.

Pandit, who took over in December, inherited the subprime mortgages and bonds now being written down from his predecessor, Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince.

Yesterday Pandit said he's selling assets and shedding units outside the retail banking, trading, investment-banking and transaction-processing businesses. He's cutting about 9,000 jobs over the next year, on top of 4,200 announced in January.

The shares climbed $1.08, or 4.5 percent, to $25.11 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Even with yesterday's gain, Citigroup is down 15 percent this year.

``You've brought in a new management team that is off to a very good start,'' Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. analyst Jason Goldberg said in an interview with Bloomberg radio. Still, ``it's going to take some time till you begin to see the losses begin to go the other way.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Bradley Keoun in New York at [e-mail].

Last Updated: April 19, 2008 00:01 EDT