First, thanks for posting the Market updates everyday. I appreciate that addition to this board.
But I have a question for anyone with an opinion... How high do you guys think Oil is going to go? Just a few years ago, it was around $50. Only 5 or 6 years ago in North Atlanta, I could get regular for .89 a gallon!
Market Update 080416 http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html 4:20 pm : On Wednesday, the stock market surged 2.3% after investor sentiment was lifted by positive earnings surprises from several major corporations. All ten economic sectors posted a gain. At the same time, crude oil and the euro spiked to fresh all-time highs.
Intel (INTC 22.13, +1.22) was one of the most influential stocks on Wednesday, and was by far the most actively traded issue. The tech bellwether reported adjusted earnings of $0.29 per share, besting the consensus estimate by four cents. Intel gave a reassuring outlook, which helped calm the market’s fears over demand and margins.
Tech outperformed with a 3.1% gain, as did the Nasdaq 100 with an advance of 2.9%. The Semiconductor Index (SOX) surged 5.5%.
Financial firms also reported earnings that pleased investors. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 44.96, +2.84) topped expectations by four cents per share and Wells Fargo (WFC 29.01, +1.20) beat estimates by three cents per share. The financial sector gained 3.3% on the day.
Other companies that topped estimates include Coca-Cola (KO 61.15, +0.21), CSX Corp (CSX 59.89, +2.12), Abbott Labs (ABT 51.35, -0.56) and Johnson Controls (JCI 34.55, +1.92).
Although all of the above companies topped expectations -- a positive for the stock market -- not all reported strong earnings relative to last year. Intel’s net earnings fell 12%, JPM Morgan earnings were down 50% after $5.1 billion in write-downs and Wells Fargo's earnings fell 9.1%. Nevertheless, the market was pleased that earnings were better than feared.
The Dollar Index (-0.86%) posted a steep loss, with the euro climbing to an all-time high. This provided a lift to commodities (+0.8%), especially precious metals such as gold (+1.7%).
The gains in commodities helped boost the materials sector (+4.9%). Monsanto (MON 131.54, +8.86) also helped matters, as its stock surged 7.2% after Goldman Sachs raised their earnings estimates on the firm, according to Bloomberg.com
Crude oil hit an all-time high of $115.07 per barrel. The weak dollar, and an unexpected drop in crude inventories fueled the buying interest. As a result, the energy sector gained 2.7%.
Economic data were mixed, although the reports had a mostly muted effect on trading.
The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% and core CPI (excludes energy & food) rose 0.2%. Both matched economists’ expectations. The inflation reading is outside the Fed’s comfort zone. However, it provided the market with some relief, as it was not as high as feared.
Housing data were poor. March housing starts plunged nearly 12% to the lowest level since 1991. Building permits decreased 5.8%, also falling to the lowest level since 1991. Traders have grown accustomed to the weak housing news, and shrugged off the data.
March industrial production unexpectedly rose 0.3% after falling 0.7% in February. Economists expected production to shrink by 0.1%. This counters all the manufacturing surveys for March that showed declines -- which clearly were wrong. The industrial sector (+2.5%) posted a decent gain as a result.
On Thursday, the market will have a barrage of earnings reports from 65 companies to sift through, including IBM (IBM 120.47, +3.30), Merrill Lynch (MER 44.89, +1.55) and Pfizer (PFE 21.10, +0.39). DJ30 +256.80 NASDAQ +64.07 NQ100 +2.9% R2K +3.1% SP400 +2.9% SP500 +30.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 767/2137/2.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 531/2612/1.44 bln
3:30 pm : The major indices are climbing higher heading into the final half-hour of trade. After a volatile day of trade, crude oil topped $115 per barrel for the first time. The buying interest is being fueled by an unexpected drop in crude inventories and the 0.87% decline in the dollar.
The VIX -- which measures volatility over the next 30 days -- has fallen to its lowest level of 2008. It is down 8.4% to 20.87.DJ30 +219.26 NASDAQ +61.00 SP500 +26.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 777/2093/1.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 531/2591/1.02 bln
3:00 pm : The stock market climbs to fresh highs in a broad-based move. There has been a bullish bias since the opening bell.
Financials (+2.2%) in general are performing well this session, but that cannot be said for student lender SLM Corp (SLM 16.24, -1.20), also known as Sallie Mae. Its stock has shed 6.9% after being downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Morgan Stanley. Sallie Mae is confirmed to report earnings tomorrow morning before the open.
The materials sector (+4.4%) continues to handily outperform the broader market. Agriculture chemical company Monsanto (MON 131.82, +9.14) continues its winning ways with its 7.5% advance this session. In the last five years, the stock's annual return is equivalent to 77.4%, compared to the S&P 500's 11.04% return.DJ30 +194.59 NASDAQ +55.88 SP500 +23.58 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 794/2061/1.52 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 563/2554/910 mln
2:35 pm : The stock market continues to post strong gains, as it trades modestly below its best level of the session. Treasuries are running into some selling pressure, with the 10-year note down 24 ticks.
In its Beige Book, the Fed said nine of the 12 Federal Districts have seen a slowdown in economic activity, while three -- Boston, Cleveland and Richmond -- have been mixed or steady. Consumer spending slowed, however, foreign tourism has been strong. Real estate and construction were described as "anemic" for the residential sector, and slowed for the commercial sector.
The Fed noted increases in input costs were widespread. Selling prices have also increased, but by a smaller amount. DJ30 +170.74 NASDAQ +50.23 SP500 +20.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 845/2006/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 582/2509/835 mln
2:00 pm : The major indices are trading near session highs, but have dipped slightly on the release of the Fed's Beige Book.
The Fed's Beige Book is just hitting the wires. It provides anecdotal evidence on the state of the economy ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of this month. The book notes economic conditions have weakened since February, and consumer spending has softened.DJ30 +167.81 NASDAQ +49.51 SP500 +19.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 835/1984/1.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 582/2500/766 mln
1:30 pm : Stocks are holding on to gains as buying interest remains strong. The stock market continues to trade near its session high.
Six of the ten economic sectors are trading with gains in excess of 1%. Four of them are sporting gains above 2%.
Of the sectors, materials (+3.6%) remains the leader this session. Particular strength is being exhibited by Alcoa (AA 35.94, +1.10), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 111.72, +6.22), and Monsanto (MON 129.11, +6.43).DJ30 +188.89 NASDAQ +52.49 SP500 +21.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 778/2026/1.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 562/2514/703.2 mln
1:00 pm : The stock market is trading near its best level of the session. Defensive oriented investments are out of favor this session. The consumer staples (+0.1%), health care (+0.2%) and utilities (+0.7%) sectors are underperforming on a relative basis.
European markets ended their session with decent gains, partially due to a positive response to JPMorgan's (JPM 44.24, +2.12) earnings report. London's FTSE advanced 2.4% and Germany's DAX rose 1.8%.DJ30 +196.47 NASDAQ +54.04 SP500 +21.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 733/2048/1.08 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 540/2516/633 mln
12:30 pm : The major indices climb to fresh highs. Buying interest has been broad-based, but there has been notable strength within the tech sector (+2.8%). Market breadth reflects the bullish sentiment this session. Advancers outpace decliners by nearly 5-to-1 on the NYSE, and by roughly 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.DJ30 +207.09 NASDAQ +55.80 SP500 +22.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 726/2043/972 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 534/2494/570 mln
12:05 pm : The major indices have traded with strong gains throughout Wednesday’s session. Investor sentiment has been lifted by a number of positive earnings surprises from major corporations.
Intel (INTC 22.17, +1.26) is one of the most influential stocks this session, and has by far been the most actively traded issue. The tech bellwether reported adjusted earnings of $0.29 per share, besting the consensus estimate by four cents. Intel gave a reassuring outlook, which helped calm the market’s fears over demand and margins.
Tech is outperforming with a 2.4% gain as a result, as is the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite.
Financial companies also bested expectations, which has given a strong 2.5% lift to the financial sector. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 43.96, +1.88) topped expectations by four cents per share and Wells Fargo (WFC 29.40, +1.59) beat estimates by three cents per share.
Coca-Cola (KO 61.02, +0.08), CSX Corp (CSX 60.47, +2.70), Abbott Labs (ABT 51.26, -0.65) and Johnson Controls (JCI 33.95, +1.32) also all bested their expectations.
Although all of the above companies topped expectations--a positive for the stock market--not all reported strong earnings relative to last year. Intel’s net earnings fell 12%, JPM Morgan earnings are down 50% after $5.1 billion in write-downs and Wells Fargo earnings fell 9.1%.
Economic data were mixed.
The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% and core CPI (excludes energy & food) rose 0.2%. Both matched expectations. The inflation reading is outside the Fed’s comfort zone. However, it provided the market with some relief after not being as high as feared after the spike in producer prices.
Housing data were poor. March housing starts plunged nearly 12% to the lowest level since 1991. Building permits decreased 5.8%, also falling to the lowest level since 1991. Traders shrugged off the data.
March industrial production unexpectedly rose 0.3% after falling 0.7% in February. Economists expected production to shrink by 0.1%. This counters all the manufacturing surveys for March that showed declines--which clearly were wrong. The industrial sector (+1.8%) is posting a decent gain as a result.
In other news, crude oil climbed to an all-time high of $114.95 per barrel in overnight trade, but has since reversed and is now trading down 0.8% to $112.99 per barrel.
The dollar is down a steep 0.91% with the euro (+1.14%) climbing to a lifetime high. The dollar is seeing selling interest on worries that the European Union is not going to cut rates as the Fed will keep cutting rates.
The weak dollar is giving a boost to gold (+2.0% to $947.70). DJ30 +174.48 NASDAQ +51.88 SP500 +18.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 722/2024/899 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 561/2447/521 mln
11:35 am : The major indices take a bit of a breather as they trade slightly below their best levels.
Headlines are coming over the wires that San Francisco Fed President Yellen believes the economy has stalled, and could even contract in the first half of 2008. This is nothing new, and as a result will have limited effect on sentiment today. Fed Chairman Bernanke has already made similar comments, and the stock market has already feared a contraction for quite some time.
The euro has reached an all-time high this session. One euro bought as much as 1.5970 dollars, the most since the currency was introduced in 1999. The euro has gained 17.7% over the last year.DJ30 +181.88 NASDAQ +50.08 SP500 +18.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 717/1981/762 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 540/2431/422 mln
11:00 am : The stock market takes a bit of a breather and then extends its gains.
The unexpected rise in March industrial production has given a boost the industrials sector (+2.2%). Industrial production rose 0.3%, compared to the expected 0.1% decline. Interestingly, this counters all the manufacturing surveys for March that showed declines--which clearly were wrong. Bottom line is the manufacturing increased, and should benefit manufacturing firms' stocks.
The Dollar Index is down a steep 0.91% this session. There are concerns that the European Union is not going to cut its interest rates in the near term. This dollar is down 6.9% in 2008 and is down 13% compared to one year ago.DJ30 +190.36 NASDAQ +49.93 SP500 +20.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 642/1968/612 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 500/2427/339 mln
10:30 am : A recent bounce, led by the tech sector (+2.1%), has extend the major indices' gains. All ten economic sectors are in the green, although the strength is concentrated in materials (+3.4%), financials (+2.5%) and tech.
The materials sector (+3.6%) has claimed the leadership spot this session. Mining companies are benefiting from a pop in metal prices, with gold up 2.0%. Agriculture chemical company Monsanto (MON 128.72, +6.04) is also showing strength. Goldman Sachs said the agriculture and and fertilizer sector has "terrific fundamentals" according to the Associated Press.
In overnight trade, crude oil rose to an all-time high of $114.53 per barrel. This may not receive much attention this session as prices have since slipped into the red (-0.3% to $113.42), and considering the market is focusing on this session's economic and earnings reports.DJ30 +159.60 NASDAQ +45.42 SP500 +18.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 614/1937/463 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 463/2404/247 mln
10:00 am : The major indices are posting strong gains in excess of 1%, with all ten economic sectors in positive territory.
Financials are providing leadership with a 2.4% gain. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 44.00, +1.88) and Wells Fargo (WFC 29.44, +1.63) are posting hefty gains as traders embrace their better than expected earnings results.
Tech (+1.6%) is also showing strength, with Intel (INTC 22.14, +1.23) leading the way.DJ30 +122.70 NASDAQ +31.36 SP500 +13.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 552/1816/215 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 430/2275/114 mln
09:35 am : The stock market opens sharply higher thanks to better than expected earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Coca-Cola (KO), CSX Corp (CSX), Abbott Labs (ABT), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Intel (INTC).
Intel is the main driver behind the bullish sentiment, as it is up 6.7% which is helping the Nasdaq outperform with a 1.3% gain. The company topped expectations by four cents.
On the economic front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% and the core CPI rose 0.2%. Both matched expectations, but provided the market with some relief as they were better than feared after producer prices spiked higher.
Housing starts and building permits fell by a larger than expected amount to their lowest levels since 1991. This news was shrugged off as the market has grown accustomed to dismal housing news.DJ30 +111.46 NASDAQ +29.74 SP500 +13.02
09:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.8. March Industrial Production unexpectedly rose 0.3% (-0.1% consensus), after falling 0.7% in February. Capacity utilization was unchanged at 80.3%, which matched the consensus estimate.
08:58 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.3.
08:34 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.2. Futures hold their gains as two economic reports hit the wires. The March Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month over month, and the Core CPI (Ex Food & Energy) rose 0.2%. Both were in-line with expectations. Separately, housing starts fell 11.9% to 947K (consensus 1010K) and building permits fell to 927K (consensus 970K) from 948K. Building permits and housing starts are at the lowest levels since 1991.
08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.8. Futures point to a higher start, with the Nasdaq 100 set to outperform. Better than expected earnings from three Dow components are fueling the bullish bias. Intel reported first quarter earnings of $0.29 per share, excluding a $0.04 charge related to restructuring and asset impairment charges. The adjusted earnings per share results were $0.04 better than the consensus of $0.25. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported earnings of $0.68 per share, which topped expectations by four cents. Coco-Cola (KO)said it earned $0.67 per share in the first quarter, which is four cents better the consensus estimate. Also lending a hand is news that Wells Fargo (WFC) topped estimates by three cents.
06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.0.
06:19 am : FTSE...5940.90...+34.00...+0.6%. DAX...6610.67...+25.62...+0.4%.
06:19 am : Nikkei...13146.13...+155.55...+1.2%. Hang Seng...23878.35...-22.98...-0.1%.
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