I put little credence in the “indicators” as promulgated by the chart people as a predictor of the future for IDMI. As a scientist, I have focused on the product, L-MTP-PE – the science and the events associated with it. Part of my analysis, I examine both the contrarian and the so called “pumper” arguments - to find and balance the legitimate negatives with the positives in owning IDMI. Have the contrarian individuals (found on the IDMI YMB) ever brought anything of significance to that board? Answer: NO. So, are there ANY negatives? Near as I can tell about the only ones are the negligible uncertainties (in my view) as to whether the FDA and EMEA will both authorize the commercial sale of Junovan/L-MTP-PE (apparently somewhere around the 3rd quarter 2008). I give the probability of success of L-MPT-PE as > 90%. The contrarians have brought up reasons for the first rejection by the FDA (and beat that issue to death). But as has been pointed out by tzm, bowonwing, cybear_mn, myself and others, those data are outdated. Updated data has shown L-MTP-PE treatment does improve survivorship of osteosacrcoma patients. That the FDA has granted compassionate access to L-MTP-PE indicates a significant change of heart by the FDA. The COG report means a lot, too, etc. etc.
Getting back to the charts – the float is quite small and it appears about 50% of that is controlled by the Palo Alto Partners. Also the reputation of IDMI, with that first fiasco with the FDA has left this company with few followers. I think the bottom line is that we will see high variability with the pps until a truly definitive event occurs and until then, the “charts” are not valid indicators for future performance.
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