I think that blender's tax credit of 51 cents per gallon expires at the end of 2010. Without it, I don't see how many of these guys can stay in business, especially with $6 per bushel corn. And I don't think there is going to be much enthusiasm on the part of consumers to keep the price of corn that high while also subsidizing ethanol.
Of course the original motivation behind all this was good - to wean ourselves off foreign oil. Nobody wants more trouble in the middle east, and oil seems to be at the heart of those troubles. I would certainly be willing to pay more for ethanol and corn if it meant we could extract ourselves from the middle east.
It is interesting that Brazil has achieved energy independence. From that perspective, they're doing far better than us right now. I wouldn't mind eliminating the import tax on Brazilian ethanol, that would seem harmless enough, and also provide us with some diversification in our energy imports.
I'm also optimistic about the prospects for ethanol based on cellulose. I see some good potential there, though it could be many more years before it becomes commercially viable.
Right now I'm kind of neutral on the corn ethanol business. We need the fuel,but the side effects to the food market and environment are very undesirable. I don't know what the future holds for corn ethanol. After the tax credits expire, I suspect some of those plants will get converted to utilize more economical fuel and feedstock sources, but that will be expensive and time consuming - and probably require another government handout. To me it looks like we're somewhere between the first and second inning of this new energy game.
The whole solar field looks interesting. Buy a plug-in hybrid, and charge it using solar cells mounted on top of your house. Ten years from now that could be quite common and economical. Regarding what type of fuel goes in the tank - that's a good question.
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