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04/13/04 9:38 PM

#2880 RE: ReturntoSender #2878

Market Technicals Hit Negative Extremes
By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader

http://www.thetechtrader.com/closing/index.php?HTTP_REFERER=(none)

A miserable day on Wall Street, but it certainly started out differently.Before the opening today the futures were up and the market opened sharply higher. The Nasdaq 100 got above 1500 again for the third time in the last week or two but couldn’t hold it. The S&P 500 backed off resistance near 1149-50 and the rest of the day they spent selling off steadily & hard.

Only in the last hour did we have a snapback rally, and even that one failed in the last few minutes and backed off. So net on the day the Dow was down 134, the S&P 500 down nearly 16, the Nasdaq Composite down 35 and the 100 down 23. The SOX Index was down around 9.

The technicals really bore out how bad a day it was, with the advance-declines on New York nearly climactic with only 400 up and 2940 down. That’s more than 7 to 1, a number we haven’t seen in a while. Up/down volume was nearly as bad, about 8 or 9 to 1, with more than 1.25 billion to the downside and less than 150 million to the upside. Nasdaq was nearly as bad with less than 700 up and more than 2500 down. Advancing/declining volume was a bit better, but still about 2 ½ to 1 negative, with 1.375 billion down and 529 million up. Total volume was 1.4 billion on New York and 1.9 billion on Nasdaq.

So, again, it was a very bad day on the Street.

It was very negative on my personal board as well. There were ,however, pockets of strength in the security stocks group. Viisage (VISG) was up 2.55 on a heavy 15 million shares. Spectrum Signal (SSPI) soared from 1.60 to 6.49 before backing way off to 3.87, still up 2.12 on the day on 22 million.

On the downside, Magal Security (MAGS) was all over the place, getting as low as 26.80 and running as high as high as nearly 35. It closed back around 28.36, down 2.89 on heavy volume as well. Mamma.com (MAMA) took it on the chin, down 1.29. Sento (SNTO) was down 1.20. Vicon (VII), another security stock, was down 1.40, and Chipmos (IMOS) in the chip sector was down 1.08.

A couple of strong notes, Arotech (ARTX) was up 70 cents on 47 million shares, huge volume there. Lantronix (LTRX) in the low-priced sector was up 80 cents, a very big percentage gain for a $2 stock. And Wave Systems (WAVX) rose from the dead, up 81 cents, on 14 ½ million shares.

So it was a very mixed picture, but for the most part to the downside expect for some specialty stocks.

Stepping back and reviewing the overall patterns, the market suffered some technical deterioration by breaking last week’s key support level at around 1475 on the NDX. The S&P 500 broke down through the 1134-35 support zone, and we have some major levels to watch tomorrow at around 1460 on the Nasdaq 100.If that occurs we will fill the gap from last week. The S&P 500 has a line of support around the 1125 area, which was nearly tested today with a low around 1127.70.

So a bad day on the Street, and the President speaks tonight and Intel’s earnings are out, and we’ll see how those pieces of news affect the market trading tomorrow morning.

Good trading!

Harry