The daily 13ema has been below the 50ema since early Nov. Each time it has come up and kissed the 50, only to be rejected. I'm guessing that it will, at the very least, back test to that area before too much more bullish action above 1390-1400 is even possible.
I believe it is more likely that the SPX will hit fresh yearly lows, with 1390-1400 holding strong. If true, I think you'll see the tumble over start by the beginning of next week.
If we sustain above 1400, then I think it will be time to get on track with airedale's count, but not until then.
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