Too long Steve--it requires an significant sized essay and A/D charts /volume charts yada yada, and establishing that mania excesses that erupted in the fall of 1999 never really slackened.
There was a magnificient article on Cross-Currents site called Metamorphosis that i downloaded to my hard-drive.
I consider it brilliant.
The best presentation i know that existed on the net--but CrossCurrents has quite rightfully gone to subscription only.
But the keyword is Metamorphosis, warning that traditional dedication to TA rules can not any longer be applied without adjustments and considering the new factors of the market place as people just haven't caught on that Market Place has had a deep Metamorphosis.
The unprecedented/ unheard of 5 minus 50s NAMO in 7weeks recently are but one niblet of a metamorphosed market.
Their is terrible underpart of this situation, the 401k system is NOT natural, the stock market was NEVER ever meant to be where one goes to buy and hold and retire happy.
In 1929, at the height of the Bull Mania of the 20s, 20% of the populace were invested in the market and 10% owned 90% of the equities.
The lets use the stock market to solve the problems of our future didn't start until around 1994.
And participation in the market by % started to ride upward. Mutual Funds number increased exponentially, it is mindblowing to see how many more MFs their are now than historically in the past.
The public participation did not decrease after 2000 but ONLY increased--we are at around 56% now, and money went steadily still into aggressive growth/high risk as too many losers saw this as the only way to get their money back.
So what is the terrible side? The point where the 56% participation collapses and people flee the market place-- as this is but ONE of the bull factors that NEVER changed--we have throughout this "secular bear" maintained market participation nearly 2.5 times above the historical norm for a mania phase.
As of 3 years ago Japanese public participation in stock market was 8%--7times less then our %.
This is just the tip of iceberg of what i could write here--so you can see it is just TOO MUCH work to give forth:)
Our market in the future will go down very very brutally OR the U.S.Government does what Japan did, to buy equities hand over fist at crisis points with tax-payer money as i have heard suggested by others.
blah blah blah---i can bore a stone to crumbling to dust when i get yapping:)
WL.
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