Correction: Donkey & Cart
I wrote, "Whenever I describe technical analysis (CCI, RSI, MACD, etc) to people who ask me about it now, I usually tell them how it's like watching a cart followed by a donkey."
Should be "like watching a donkey followed by a cart."
Helps a lot when I don't read the signals backwards!
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Posted by: kenwong
In reply to: John French who wrote msg# 17379
Date: 3/16/2008 12:06:48 PM
Post #17380 of 17380
Subject: Reply & Ramblings
Hi John,
I've been sitting on the sidelines in cash for the most part. Did go long with my 401k last week when the Dow was around 12,100. MVP is the main system I watch these days. Also look at AmericanBull's candlestick reads for QQQQ and MDY. And, still get Druster's daily signals, too. Stumbled across "Main QQQQ" (referenced in my last post here) at C2 which seems to have promise based on the 4 months of live performance.
I also have a lot of faith in Steve. My thinking is that he's on the right track because MVP doesn't rely on chart indicators (CCI, RSI, MACD, etc) that most of us think of when messing around with technical analysis. Rather, Steve's system looks for "other" known extremes. The market reads aren't as clean and exact as most would like which results in drawdowns that are a little uncomfortable at times ... but Steve's trading vehicles do seem to follow his reads farely well (well meaning good enough to make money).
Whenever I describe technical analysis (CCI, RSI, MACD, etc) to people who ask me about it now, I usually tell them how it's like watching a cart followed by a donkey. You can definitely see a relationship between the cart's path and the donkey's path. BUT, I've seen too many times where the donkey didn't go next in the direction indicated by the cart's path. Unfortunately, the donkey has a mind of its own and can decide at any moment for any length of time to go to the left ... when the cart has been going to the left or right. If anything, chart indicators do get a trader to participate which is necessary to make money. But that participation may also result in loss as well. The most effective use of chart indicators basically comes down to money management ... in terms of how best to manage trades based on a series of coin toss flips. Well, that's my opinion at least.
I also like visiting Collective2's "Popular List" on a daily basis. I think this is one of the best investment websites available to us ... because of how Mathew Klein has built a true "can't hide from the real facts" reporting method on how systems really perform. I'll never forget how NM (former Clearstation poster) use to make tons of posts about his system with such detail that it seemed like he might really be on to something good. But when he started a C2 system, the real results were incredibly bad. So now we all knew the real performance and not the perception that was being promoted. Still, I think NM deserves some credit for posting his system on C2. It takes a lot of guts to create a system on C2 because it's "rubber hits the road" time where everyone can see you succeed or fail in full-living color.
Well, that's my current read on the situation.
Ken ;-)
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