I bought my first stock 13 years ago and believe that it took about 12.5 of those 13 to take a hard look at my past mistakes and habits. turns out i would inevitably repeat them time and time again. So last year i focused on those few nasty habits and one of my biggest goals now is to not fall into those patterns of self destruction. my trading skills are adequate enough to make a fine living at this if i stay within the lines.
your post reminded me of a trade from 2002. i shorted the ndx at what turned out to be the high on a 5 day spike rally. the index then dropped 8% in three days or 16% for the leveraged fund. i felt there was some more downside so i held (not something i usually do when the profit gets that big). well on the fourth firth sixth day or so it reveresed and went straight up and even went higher than my original short entry. i waited a few more days and closed if for about2% profit.
Since that big fish that got away i have an impossible time not closing profitable trades out too early instead of letting them run. i generally give it a go about once every few months or so now, but the results have not been good. so i remain a hit and run guy who wants to be able to follow a trend with at least a portion of the account. i am planning to try this next week on the long side after the next pullback in the ndx. it sure would be nice if it worked out to give me some confidence in a different style of trading.
so i too am guided by fear and greed but its diffeent than yours. i sell too early for fear of it reversing on me and cutting the profits i already have.
good luck to us both in battling the fear/greed duo.
If we break 1530 i will be convinced it will be very probable we break 1560--on analysizing that event, the upside potential after would be too high to place my long SHORT position as i see 1627 as a minimum likely top. Because it involves world events that can be classified as a political rather than what i feel is hard realistic analysis i can't elaborate but i see nothing to help this market come June, but only damage it. i feel a loooooong downtrend will be found to have it's high anchor point at most in late May or early June.
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