arjunah, while i'd love to have a cyclic phasing that correctly explained price action without noting possible fundamental interaction, i can't see any other explanation. Hurst discusses fundamental effect and states that fundamentals will affect cycle amplitude but will not change cycle phase (length) so the location of cyclic troughs will not change. i have difficulty accepting the recent interest rate cuts causing a postponing of a cyclic trough of any degree. the cycle course examples of pseudo trend (caused by longer event fundamentals)explains the amplitude increase that occurs as the cyclic troughs still bottom when expected. that may be the case here, subprime/credit problems are of enough duration to label the movement as pseudo trend.
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