lobster, as far as a different reading, fundamental events affect amplitude of cycles but do not affect timing of troughs according to Hurst. as far as estimating time frames,i don't know. i definitely underestimated the effect and the duration of the subprime fiasco. as far as the bigger picture, i see no indication of a new bear market. all important flds are above price, no longer below. Hurst called it a "magnet" effect.
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