Replies to post #3484 on Repros Therapeutics Inc (RPRX)

[io_io]

<"??????????????????????????????????? Biotechs historically overestimate their true efficacy.........">


Exwannabe approached this from the standpoint that the drug is known to work, and looked at what can go wrong. He made various deductions, including a 10% cut based upon the 90% "true power" of not seeing the benefit assumption underlying the trial design.

However, you will see plenty of trials that fall short of the assumed benefit margin, but the lower margin of advantage is still sufficient to hit statistical significance.

In other words, it is absolutely NOT necessary to hit the assumed margin (over control) underlying the trial design - the SAME margin that the assigned power is based upon.

Therefore his deduction of 10% is overly conservative.