Kap, that would be a good bet! I don't need your money so let's just take that as an informal bet. You say no desktop AMD64 Windows before LongHorn, I say it comes on WindowsXP this year.
Now we just wait to see who is right.
P.S.: I don't care if the release is XP Prof or XP Home. It will be a desktop release. If XP Prof is the version available then all desktop systems for the home will come with it, even if it is an option on the order form. 32-bit XP Home included, 64-bit XP Prof $50 more - if you are already purchasing a 64-bit PC, what would you get? Hint: Home users don't like to get a machine with an option that does not take advantage of their hardware.