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3xBuBu

02/21/08 10:33 PM

#15512 RE: 3xBuBu #15463

Market Update 080221
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:20 pm : The major indices opened higher Thursday morning, but stocks were undercut by a drop in the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index. The news weighed on investors despite reports of a drop in weekly jobless claims and news that leading economic indicators were in-line with expectations.

The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.

Jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 16 fell 9,000 to 349,000. The results were in-step with the consensus forecast. Notably, jobless claims continue to trend below levels typically associated with a recession.

Leading economic indicators for January declined 0.1%. That was in-line with the consensus estimate.

After reaching record levels yesterday, oil prices today declined more than $2.29, or 2.3%, to $97.41 per barrel. The energy sector (-2.1%) retreated alongside oil and finished as the day's main laggard. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced supplies for the week ending Feb. 16 were higher than anticipated, marking the sixth week of inventory builds.

All ten of the major economic sectors finished in negative territory.

Technology stocks (-1.0%) were in focus today, but the sector was only able to slightly outperform the broader market. Microsoft (MSFT 28.10, -0.12) announced it is increasing the openness of its products as part of an effort to enhance interoperability. Microsoft's shares traded higher in the early going, up as much as 2.6%, as market participants anxiously awaited news from the industry bellwether. Skeptics question whether the move will be enough to gain the favor of European regulators. Microsoft trended lower after the announcement, weighing on the broader market.

On the other hand, Canadian company Research In Motion (RIMM 106.69, +8.78) traded higher after increasing its outlook for net subscribers in the fourth quarter. The company reiterated its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter, forecasting profits between $0.66 and $0.70 per share.

After falling nearly 8% during the previous two sessions, telecom (-0.1%) finished the day as a relative leader. AT&T (T 34.47, +0.11) and Verizon (VZ 35.36, +0.12) recovered slightly after previously seeing steep declines as investors feared the start of a pricing war.

After spending the morning in positive territory, the major indices finished more than 1% lower, near their worst levels of the session. From the session's high to its close, the Dow declined 1.8%, the Nasdaq slipped 2.3%, and the S&P fell 1.9%. DJ30 -142.96 NASDAQ -27.32 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -1.9% SP400 -1.3% SP500 -17.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2038/863/2.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2304/822/1.42 bln

3:30 pm : The major indices are fighting to stay off their session lows. At their worst levels, each of the major indices were down more than 1%.

Each major economic sector is trading in negative territory. All ten have failed to register a gain year-to-date.

Volatility has increased during the session. The VIX is now above 3%.DJ30 -137.91 NASDAQ -23.15 SP500 -15.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1951/935/1.85 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2306/803/1.09 mln

3:00 pm : Apollo Group (APOL 62.70, -6.48) and Career Education (CECO 15.82, -1.68) have been hit hard in this session's trading. The for-profit education providers are being pressured by credit concerns related to the companies' ability to extend loans to students.

Apollo is the session's second-worst performing stock in the Nasdaq 100 (-0.7%). Biotech company Gilead Sciences (GILD 43.97, -1.63) is the session's worst performer in the index.

The market's previous attempt to recover lost ground has waned. Stocks are retreating back toward session lows.DJ30 -124.64 NASDAQ -18.22 SP500 -14.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1859/1008/1.65 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2194/885/959 mln

2:30 pm : Food retailers (-3.7%) have been among today's worst performers. Safeway (SWY 29.75, -2.19) announced fourth quarter results this morning that were in-line with analysts' expectations, but traders are sending its shares lower. Kroger (KR 25.56, -0.74) is also down.

The market, though still in negative territory, is retracing earlier losses.

Volatility is up as the market trades through negative territory in choppy fashion. The VIX is up more than 2.0%.

Despite the negative sentiment in the U.S., international indices are trading higher. The Dow Jones World Index, excluding the U.S., is up 1.9% this session, near its best levels of the session.DJ30 -98.51 NASDAQ -11.01 SP500 -9.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1770/1066/1.52 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2091/970/877 mln

2:00 pm : The market has made an upturn after taking on new lows. Still, despite a positive open to the session's activity, pessimism has prevailed in afternoon trading.

With the exception of telecom (+0.3%), each of the major economic sectors are trading in negative territory. Energy (-2.0%) is posting the session's largest decline, trading lower in response to the session's decrease in oil prices.

Gold closed the session $13.00 higher at $950.80 per ounce. Silver also traded higher, ending the session at $17.97 per ounce after a $0.21 gain.DJ30 -119.84 NASDAQ -18.08 SP500 -12.59 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1830/988/1.40 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 913/2144/797 mln

1:35 pm : The major indices fall to fresh lows, as continued pressure from financials (-0.9%) and energy (-2.0%) weigh on stocks. All ten of the economic sectors are trading at or near their worst levels. Market breadth has also taken a turn for the worse. Decliners outpace advancers by more than 2-to-1 on the NYSE and by more than 1.5-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

The dollar is showing significant weakness, with the Dollar Index shedding 0.7%. The euro is up 0.9% against the dollar, while the pound is up 1.1%. The dollar has lost 0.8% against the yen.DJ30 -109.58 NASDAQ -11.19 SP500 -11.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1724/1079/1.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2063/976/731 mln

1:00 pm : A short-lived recovery attempt fizzles as the major indices fall back toward their lows. The energy sector (-1.7%) is back on the decline in response to a steep drop in crude prices (-2.0% to $98.13).

Microsoft (MSFT 28.20, -0.02) announced earlier this session a set of changes to its technology and business practices that will attempt to increase the openness of its product and increase interoperability. The company also said these changes will provide more opportunity and choice for developers, partners, customers and competitors. After the announcement, shares of Microsoft drifted to the unchanged mark, after being up as much as 2.6%. According to reports, the European Union will still go ahead with its antitrust case against Microsoft.DJ30 -79.79 NASDAQ -9.22 SP500 -8.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1586/1174/1.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1861/1157/649 mln

12:30 pm : The major indices take out fresh session lows as financials (-0.6%) and tech (-0.2%) fall to their worst levels of the session. Only telecom (+0.5%) remains in the green.

Commodities are faring better, with a gain of 0.6%. Another strong session for gold (+2.0% to $956.00) is helping to offset the slight 0.3% decline in crude oil.DJ30 -75.31 NASDAQ -9.23 SP500 -7.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1556/1190/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1828/1173/584 mln

12:00 pm : The major indices opened higher Thursday morning, lifted by tech stocks. However, a disappointing manufacturing survey took some wind out of the buying interest. At midday, the major indices are trading in mixed fashion, near the unchanged mark. Four of the ten economic sectors are in the green.

In economic news, the February Philadelphia Fed, a regional manufacturing survey, came in at -24.0. Economists expected a reading of -10.0. Since the reading is below 0, it reflects a retraction in manufacturing in the region. Similarly, a recent NY Empire State Index disappointed, falling more than expected. This is not a good number, but it is important to keep in mind this is just a survey as it was -20.9 in January yet industrial production still rose 0.1% in that month.

New unemployment claims for the week ended Feb.16 fell to 349,000 from the prior reading of 358,000. This was nearly in-line with expectations, so the market did not have much of a response. This is not a low level of claims, yet it remains below typical recessionary levels.

January leading indicators fell 0.1%, which was in-line with expectations.

Large-cap tech names have been in focus this session. Cisco (CSCO 23.72, +0.52) was lifted after being upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup. Citi said they feel Cisco is a good value for long-term investors due to its attractive valuation. Shares of Research In Motion (RIMM 107.53, +9.62) are soaring after the company reaffirmed its fourth quarter earnings and revenue guidance, and raised its net subscription guidance. Tech is outperforming with a gain of 0.3%, although RIM is not included in the sector as it is a Canadian company.

Telecom (+1.1%) is leading the way as investors scoop up AT&T (T 35.03, +0.67) and Verizon (VZ 35.89, +0.63) in a bargain hunting bid. The sector fell 7.8% during the two previous sessions on fears of a pricing war.

Energy (-0.8%) is the main laggard, although it is well off its lows after crude oil (-0.1% to $99.59) pared its losses. Crude oil traded in a choppy manner, but eventually came off its lows, even though the government said in its weekly report that inventories rose by a larger than expected amount. DJ30 -12.05 NASDAQ +1.05 SP500 -1.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1344/1366/907 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1554/1411/511 mln

11:30 am : Energy (-1.1%) has spiked off its low as crude oil (-0.4% to $99.30) pares its losses. With the exception of telecom (+1.1%), the other sectors have not seen much of an uptick, which is keeping the major indices close to their worst levels of the session.

Volatility is up 0.8%, as measured by the VIX Index. Year-to-date, volatility is up 9.2%.DJ30 -30.94 NASDAQ +0.18 SP500 -3.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1334/1337/798 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1654/1287/444 mln

11:00 am : In the past half-hour of trade, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all hit session lows, in negative territory. The Nasdaq is now down 0.1%, after being up as much as 1.0%.

Weakness has been broad-based, although the tech (+0.1%) and energy (-1.9%) sectors have seen notable declines from their best levels. Telecom (+0.6%) is now the leader, lifted by a bargain hunting bid after the sector shed roughly 8% in the last two sessions.

In typical fashion, crude oil traded in a volatile manner following the weekly inventory report. Crude oil is currently down 0.8% to $98.94 per barrel.DJ30 -49.74 NASDAQ -6.20 SP500 -1.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1332/1300/666 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1643/1269/365 mln

10:35 am : Stock market attempted to recover but then ran into some resistance as it falls back near the unchanged mark.

Five of the ten sectors are in positive territory. Not surprisingly, tech (+1.0%) is the leader, as it gets a boost from Cisco (CSCO 23.86, +0.66) and Microsoft (MSFT 28.85, +0.63). Research In Motion (RIMM 107.13, +9.22) is also giving the sector an indirect boost.

Energy is the main laggard, as it slips 1.2%.

On a related note, just reported, the Dept. of Energy said crude inventories for the week ended Feb. 15 rose 4.45 million barrels, more than the expected build of 2.40 million barrels. Crude was trading down 1.2% to $98.17 per barrel just prior to the report.DJ30 +3.17 NASDAQ +14.47 SP500 -0.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 975/1589/486 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1202/1666/272 mln

10:05 am : The major indices retreat on a disappointing Philly Fed reading. The Dow and S&P are now trading with slight losses, while the Nasdaq gains have been halved.

Just hitting the news wires, the February Philadelphia Fed, a regional manufacturing survey, came in at -24.0. Economists expected a reading of -10.0. Since the reading is below 0, it it reflects a retraction in manufacturing in the region. Similarly, a recent NY Empire State Index disappointed, falling more than expected. This is not a good number, but it is important to keep in mind this is just a survey.

Separately, January leading indicators fell 0.1%, in-line with expectations. DJ30 -3.18 NASDAQ +11.98 SP500 -1.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 822/1609/253 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 924/1838/141 mln

09:40 am : The stock market opens on a high note, with the Nasdaq Composite handily outperforming.

Large cap tech names are getting a nice boost after Cisco (CSCO) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup. Citi said they feel Cisco is a good value for long-term investors due to its attractive valuation. Research In Motion (RIMM) is also a standout, after reaffirming its fourth quarter earnings and revenue guidance, and raising its net subscription guidance. Since RIM is a Canadian company, it is not included in the S&P 500, but does hold a weighting in the Nasdaq.

Microsoft (MSFT) is also giving tech a boost, as the company said it will be making a "significant" announcement at 11:30 ET, that is not related to its offer to purchase Yahoo! (YHOO).DJ30 +46.40 NASDAQ +21.06 SP500 +4.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 689/1549/104 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 806/1714/61 mln

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.8. Futures indicate a higher start. After hitting fresh all-time highs yesterday, crude oil has slipped 0.9% to $98.89 per barrel. On interview with CNBC, T. Boone Pickens said he has a short position in oil and natural gas, as he expects prices to fall in the second quarter, according to Reuters. He expects oil to return to $100 per barrel in the second half of the year. Pickens previously correctly predicted that oil prices would hit $100.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.0. It is shaping up to be a positive start to the trading day as futures hovering near their best levels. Microsoft (MSFT) is to make a "significant" announcement at 11:30 ET, that is not related to its offer to acquire Yahoo! (YHOO).

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. A higher start is still expected. Jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 16 fell to 349K from the prior reading of 358K. The reading was nearly in-line with the 345K consensus.

08:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Futures are off their best levels, but point to a higher open as carryover momentum from yesterday lifts the market. Also giving support is Research In Motion (RIMM) reaffirming its fourth quarter EPS and earnings guidance, and raising its net subscriber guidance. Cisco (CSCO) was upgraded Buy from Hold at Citigroup. World markets have performed well, as the DJ World Ex US Index is up 1.9%.

06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.8.

06:27 am : FTSE...5967.40...+73.80...+1.3%. DAX...6984.20...+84.52...+1.2%.

06:27 am : Nikkei...13688.28...+377.91...+2.8%. Hang Seng...23623.00...+32.42...+0.1%.