Replies to post #114843 on ajtj99's Market Pulse

[skono4]

Creative adjustments to inflation are needed to deny that we've been in a slowing economy for quite a while. The more creative they are the less accurate we can be in understanding the relative degrees of change. Whatever is happening seems to be very gradual in it's larger context. What appears apocolyptic in specific sectors or to Wall Street fast money isn't something easily measurable across the whole economy
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http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

2007 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2007 (that is, from the 2006 annual level to the 2007 annual
level), compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2006.

The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2007 were personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending. These
positive contributions were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and in inventory
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP primarily reflected a larger decrease in residential fixed investment,
a downturn in private inventory investment, and a deceleration in equipment and software that were
partly offset by a deceleration in imports.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.7 percent in 2007, compared with an
increase of 3.3 percent in 2006.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.9 percent, or $648.3 billion, in 2007. Current-dollar GDP
increased 6.1 percent, or $760.8 billion, in 2006.

During 2007 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2007), real
GDP increased 2.5 percent. Real GDP increased 2.6 percent during 2006. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 3.3 percent during 2007, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent during
2006.

[ajtj99]

Recession over? It's just started likely in December. By definition, a recession is 2-quarters of negative growth, so we'll only officially have had a recession sometime this summer if the 1st and 2nd quarter come in negative.