Last week from Hays...
“Yesterday the TRIN closed above 3.0 for one of the few times in its history. In fact, yesterday’s close was more than 3 standard deviations away from its 64 year mean value – in other words, it was a very rare sight indeed. Only five other times in the past 64 years has the TRIN closed above 3.0 after also seeing a reading above 2.0 for at least 3 out of the past 5 days. After every one of those other occurrences, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher 60 days later, and with an average gain of a hefty 8.2%.” “In 1942, the Dow bottomed after a long, brutal bear market which began in 1937. After the low in ’42, the Dow went on to a spectacular gain of 50%+ over the next year. A little over a year after the bottom, the market began its first serious correction, with the Dow losing over 8% during the course of only a couple of weeks (maybe it’s just me, but this all sounds extremely familiar…). By August 2nd of that year, the TRIN had closed above 2.0 for 3 out of the past 5 days, and on that day it closed at an extremely high level. That marked the low for the moment as the market then went on to rally nearly 6% over the next month and a half before encountering trouble. But once again, that decline was only temporary as the Dow went on to make another run over the next three years.”
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