I don't have my 60 min charts in front of me (I am at work), but I will take a look tonight at home, and post a chart with some thoughts.
I am still keeping an eye on the $BPSPX for a longer term bias. Currently we are in X's, so we are on offense. At the time of the last Fed cut (12/11, as you mentioned), the BPSPX was in the X's. However, after that, it reversed down, and we were in defensive mode until the reversal in the BP last Thurs. Could the same happen now (a reversal of the BP's with a Fed cut)? Maybe. I have been reading/studying Tom Dorsey's book Point and Figure Charting, and they had the BPNYA going all the way back to the 70's. There have been 4 times that the BP's have been this low. On two of the occasions, the BP reversed back up, and did not stop till they hit 70+. However, on two of the occasions, the BP's reversed up, then back down (forming some positive divergence to price), then finally back up and going to the 70's. In either case, it was a great time to open some longs.
As I posted, I was long some SSO this morning and sold it. I bought back in later on, but in hind sight, I should have just held on to it. I need to stop looking at the 5 min charts!! LOL!
Probably more info than you wanted, but hope it helps.
Here is my hourly chart. From where I have the trendline drawn, todays gap open may have been the break out. We do have a well defined rising trendline that price has been bouncing along for two days now. The dashed blue line is just me playing with the trendlines, but it does form a pennant or triangle of some sort.
I have started to study the point and figure method some, and here is the hourly chart of the SPX, using a box size of 10, and standard 3 box reversal. I have boxed out what I think could be some resistance at 1380 and 1440. Any move in the SPX of less than 10 points gets filtered. So it would need to move above 1370 before another X would be placed in the current column of X's. However, that would give a buy signal on the SPX. Also note the higher lows over the last three columns; bullish. Again, just getting started with this, so if I am wrong, please correct me if I am wrong.
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