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Replies to #14380 on The Black Box
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Chris McConnel

03/18/04 9:48 PM

#14381 RE: WinLoseOrDraw #14380

That's what it looks like. I believe that's Zeev's current outlook.
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mjk

03/18/04 10:01 PM

#14385 RE: WinLoseOrDraw #14380

No sh!t...the only thing I'm "certain" of, is that 1927 or the next low (if we get one) was/is going to be a great buying opp. I found something that looks so similar to this correction, I couldn't ignore it. The only thing confusing me about whether or not we get another low is that the 1927 stopped in a similar place MA/trendline wise as my reference low, but in that case, the corresponding indicators had some nice positive divergences that I don't see here yet...these would take another week or more to develop I believe.

That's a bit different than what I've seen Z say for instance, he's looking for a low next Weds (?) I think...that would be my high, before the final plunge. And I definitely don't see 1887 or 1867 like some see. And last, I'm not at all convinced we're going to 2300+, I just think we'll at least approach 2153. But yes, it is bothersome that everyone is thinking so similar. I think the most frustrating thing would be rather than run up toward the highs, we move sideways for months, only approaching 2153, but not making new highs...I'm prepared for that also.

edit: I've said before, I see plenty of cases where we get a bottom without a retest/lower low and a nice set of positive divergences. So the fact that at 1927 we were already there MA and trendline wise gives me some doubt about another low. That would F with the most people, just take off from right here...I still see plenty of people either calling for sub 1900, or a bigger crash.




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wahz

03/19/04 1:33 AM

#14395 RE: WinLoseOrDraw #14380

Yes.....well whatever is going on, there is reason to believe that this low is nearly every bit as good as the 1100 low. We really copuld go ballistic. Maybe that is where the crowd will be wrong...we won't go much lower and we'll go much higher.

Basically I think there is 100 points of downside and 1000+ points of upside potential in the next 24 months