OK. Now, some assumptions and hypotheticals need to be worked in order to come up with a reasonable and believable 'end' product (no easy thing).
Thank you, ID4GO, for those numbers. From my own personal observations of the O&G industry, and in my own personal opinion, I would assume approx. a full 1/2 (50%) of those shares traded were done so in the course of flippers coming and going. That leaves approx. 85M shares traded.
From this 85M, I would generously assume they were 'mirror trades', leaving the factual number of approx. 42.5M authentic, real, unabridged and undeniable, honest to God, shares traded.
For reasons unexplainable, subtracting that which has fallen into Long hands, I will assume a 20% margin of error subtracted from this figure, leaving us with a bottom line calculation of approx. 34M new shares since Sept 06.
Since my estimation is that the 504 was for approx. 30M shares, that leaves an extra approx 4M shares have been added to the previously known o/s of 67M shares.
In this light, either ALRY has added approx. 4M new shares to the o/s, or the 'give or take' leaves us pretty damn close to the original 30M 504 shares depleted, which in such event would mean a 'drying up' of 'cheapies' would be VERY near, and upon such an event, ALRY shareholders should be able to expect the 'seller' to soon 'be gone'.
All IMOVHO.
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