03/11: (216290) (*COMMENT*) >> Is not the Spanish situation with the Basques a very old problem <<
Madrid stock market taking it pretty good as they're only down 2.25%, while the Germans are coughing up a 3.4% hairball...
I wrote a post yesterday about "excuses" to sell...
There were plenty of headlines blaming the trade deficit for yesterdays selloff, today it is Madrid...
Mr. Market is in desperate need of a specialist scandle or an anthrax scare, they're usually good for a few hundred Dow pts...LOL... (*END*)
The market will do what it will do, people always look for catalysts, but the market can use any line in the news as a catalyst one way or another. I commented on that before (see for instance #msg-2529677).
03/11: (216776) (*COMMENT*) Yes Zeev, technicals changed in an hour on that failure.
Told you break of SPX 1112, also many other indicators went off in last hour.
My Kitchen - wall 3 calling for a crash before end of April. (*END*)
I just do not see that. We may not be finished with this decline here, but once it is over, I think we have a major ramp ahead of us.
03/12: (217406) (*COMMENT*) Volume pretty weak vs. last 4 down days. Are you sure we go up Monday and Tuesday, or do we faint from here? After all, we are pretty close to your "1987 or so". (*END*)
As I said many times, I am sure of nothing, the target for the bounce was 1991/97 with an outside shot at 2007, see #msg-2568949 from two days ago. We are at 1985 here, so it is pretty close to satisfying this short term map. Unless some disaster occurs over the weekend, I think we start the week a little strong to really get overbought, before the regularly scheduled program resumes.
03/12: (217413) (*COMMENT*) Wow,1984.70. I figured 1983-88.NOW WHAT? (*END*)
We might even tag 2007 early next week, but doubt that holds for long (see #msg-2568949)..... got to lower the Maginot line to 2043 here, namely, if 2043 taken with gusto, the last leg down in the "regularly scheduled program" may not materialize...
03/12: (217421) (*COMMENT*) I think the likelihood that we see at least 1913 is very high (80%). 1887 seems probably too.
I see many bearish charts especially in wireless and networking there is a lot more downside risk. (*END*)
The real question is not so much if we see 1913 or 1887, but once we get there, will the Maginot zone at 1842/50 hold and will we generate enough negativism (P/C ration bunching GNT etc) without too much expansion of new lows (like less than 50 on the Naz would be nice) so that we can engage in the glorious march of 400 to 500 Naz points from those lows into early summer. By the way, I went out with about 35% cash including 6% in gold, as planned. Hopefully, by Monday night, I'll be abe to raise at least another 15% cash.
03/12: (217466) (*COMMENT*) Zeev, do you have a Maginot line and best case low for the sox? Do you still think the semis will underperform on the 2350+ upleg? (*END*)
The most likely area of support for the late winter swoon for the S0X is 448, I would not be surprise if it drops all the way to 420, only a drop under 420 (nominal should be 417) should indicate a resumption of the "major bear" move, IMTO.
03/14: (217569) (*COMMENT*) Don't be so sure Zeev. Fri's move up saw volume that was much lighter and below-average. al-Qaida will do everything in their power to hurt Bush before the election so expect more attacks. Instaed of jumping in and doing alot of buying I would maintain a defensive posture. One day doesn't produce a bottom. (*END*)
Not a bottom, but a bounce back to the 1991/1997, maybe even going back above 2000. Then the next move back toward the 1887/1913 area.
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