Replies to post #8305 on Profunds index and sector trading (PRO)

[was Steve]

great post. thanks for sharing. i dont see ndx printing 1450 this week before it heads down to new lows. so basically a 50 retrace of latest drop.

for whatever reason, the spx underperformed the ndx on this drop and subsequent rebound. probably becase the ndx has been correcting for an extra month or so while the spx went on to new highs. the spx may approach your 38% retrace but i dont think it gets all the way there before heading down.

as for the 1030, i dont see that happening at all. should we go that far then i would say that my map will be wrong and the highs are in for the next few years and we wont see the higher highs i currently envision for this summer.

as for 1364 ndx that is above my range so i see that taken out, but it may not be by much. my thinking is it reverses back up in the 1330-1350 range in a few weeks.

[Gizmo]

1030 is well below the 200 dma and is unlikely to be reached. Once this thing starts back up a buying panic is likely IMO.

[Z-M-L]

The SPX on Thursday went up and tagged the 1125.76 area again (actual Thursday inter-day high was 1125.50), there by completing a three-wave a-b-c correction into the (.382 ) retracement level. What is also very interesting, this correction in the SPX took roughly three (3) trading days to complete. So the SPX correction to 1125.76 (and then 1125.50) over three (3) trading days is (.382) times the PRICE and TIME of the previous DECLINE in the SPX from 1163.23 to 1102.61.

The NDX (.382) retracement level reached last Wednesday held, during trading on Thursday and Friday, and appears to have started its next leg down in this decline.

In conclusion, I am watching the SPX (along with other data) to help guide my trading in the NDX from here forward. The SPX looks to have completed its Wave (ii) correction at the 1125.50 level on Thursday and has already begun its next leg DOWN which is Wave (iii) or (c). Because the Wave (ii) correction was so shallow by being only (.382) of the previous decline, the probability is HIGH that the next leg DOWN will be (1.618) of the previous Wave (i) decline. That indicates a target for the SPX of 1028 in roughly thirteen (13) trading days from the 1125.50 high made on Thursday, which is on or about Tuesday, April 6th. Note that April 6th is roughly the Wednesday before the week of the April Option Expiration, where the “boys” have often driven the market to short-term inflection points. The “boys” are in complete control.

I am keeping my STOP LOSS at 1460.