Replies to post #216949 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ajtj99]

Wow, someone is hedging their longs. That's usually smart money going long. Max Pain in April is QQQ 37 according to the eyeball orthodox method, setting up a remarkable recovery from a low if we get one later this month at the 55-day cycle turn.

NDX pain in April appears to be 1500, so that lines up.

[The Freep]

Justa -- I've been tracking that QQQ put/call divergence for some time in April. And the only thing I'd add is that most of the 200K plus puts at 35 QQQ in April have been there for MONTHS. Now, I don't know if they're a hedge or the second side of a buy/write combo or what not, but I would bet it would take a decline far lower than 35 to put those puts in the money vis a vis purchase price.

I realize this is not orthodox max pain stuff. <g>

As for AJ noting Max Pain right now... I dare say the odds of it changing when O/I is updated tomorrow is pretty good. Don't know which way it'll change.

And finally... in re: the market only with regards to the terror attacks... we did bottom a week after the market re-opened from 9/11. Admittedly, we were close to a bottom before then, perhaps unlike now when we're nearer a top, but we shall see if the market reacts differently this time.

the freep