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01/07/08 8:36 PM

#12949 RE: 3xBuBu #12919

Market Update 080107
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:15 pm : On Monday, stocks traded in a choppy and volatile manner as investors remained uncertain about the economic outlook. Stocks were poised to end the day with a loss, but a late-day surge in the last 15 minutes of trading sent the Dow and S&P into positive territory.

The S&P 500 closed with a modest gain, with six of its ten economic sectors advancing. The Nasdaq finished with a slight loss, marking its seventh straight decline.

The technology sector (-0.8%) extended Friday's steep declines. IBM (IBM 100.15, -0.98) was a drag after being downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS before the open. UBS also lowered its targets on Sun Microsystems (JAVA 16.11, -0.20), Dell (DELL 21.26, -0.83) and EMC (EMC 16.04, -0.95). UBS expects lower server and PC spending in 2008 due to economic pressures. The sector is now down 7.9% year-to-date.

The energy sector (-1.2%) was the worst performing sector, as it followed crude prices lower. Crude for February delivery fell 2.7% to $95.26 on concerns that slower economic growth would lead to less demand.

There were not any economic releases, but there were plenty of officials speaking about the economy.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said negatives in the U.S. economy may be gaining momentum, and market contacts have serious concerns about more market deterioration and spill over. He also said the continued depreciation of the dollar is a risk.

President Bush emphasized his belief that Congress must keep taxes low. There was speculation that he would be revealing an economic stimulus plan, but he made no reference. There is an indication that one may be in the works, however, as Treasury Secretary Paulson said Bush has not yet decided on a fiscal policy stimulus, according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, Paulson said the overhang of unsold homes will be a prolonged drag on growth, which added to the day's volatility.

Defensive sectors outperformed, and Treasuries saw some buying interest as investors showed concern that the U.S. economy may be facing a recession. Briefing.com believes the U.S. will avoid recession, but expects growth to remain sluggish for some time. DJ30 +27.31 NASDAQ -5.19 NQ100 -0.3% R2K +0.3% SP400 -0.3% SP500 +4.55 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1577/1421/2.60 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1384/1783/1.71 bln

3:30 pm : The major indices remain in negative territory, with the Nasdaq Composite once again underperforming the other indices. So far, 2008 has not been good for the bulls. At current levels, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 3.7%, 6.1% and 3.9% respectively, year-to-date.

Five of the ten economic sectors are posting a gain, but the underperformance of heavy-weights energy (-1.8%) and tech (-1.4%) are keeping the major indices in the red.

Tomorrow, November pending home sales and consumer credit are slated for release.DJ30 -37.07 NASDAQ -20.44 SP500 -2.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1633/1371/2.08 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1483/1673/1.24 bln

3:05 pm : More choppy action as the Dow and S&P briefly traded in positive territory before falling back into the red. Currently, the major indices are trading modestly above their worst levels of the session.

Bush's speech emphasized that Congress needs to keep taxes low, and did not mention any kind of plan to stimulate the economy. There is an indication that one may be in the works, as Treasury Secretary Paulson said Bush has not yet decided on a fiscal policy stimulus, according to Reuters.

The Daily Telegraph reports that Merrill Lynch believes the U.S. economy is already in a recession, citing a weakening employment picture and declining retail sales. Briefing.com believes the U.S. will avoid recession, but growth will be sluggish.DJ30 -20.16 NASDAQ -14.15 SP500 -1.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1558/1411/1.94 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1470/1681/1.15 bln

2:30 pm : The major indices fall into the red, in a broad-based decline. The market has traded in a choppy manner, as market participants remain uncertain about the economic outlook.

President Bush is currently speaking about the economy. He noted that the housing slump and high energy prices are among today's challenges. He also said he is determined to make sure taxes stay low. His comments have not had any dramatic effects on the stock market, and he has not mentioned anything about an economic stimulus plan. There was previous speculation he may announce a plan to spur economic growth.DJ30 -24.15 NASDAQ -14.46 SP500 -1.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1583/1368/1.79 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1335/1797/1.03 bln

2:00 pm : Today's roller coaster ride continues, as the Nasdaq falls back into negative territory. The Nasdaq has struggled recently, considering it has finished lower for the last six sessions.

Much of the recent selling interest has been concentrated within the technology sector (-0.9%). Specifically, computer storage & peripherals (-4.1%) is posting the largest decline, led by a 5.2% drop in EMC (EMC 16.11, -0.88).

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said the overhang of unsold homes will be a prolonged drag on growth.DJ30 +6.01 NASDAQ -4.95 SP500 +2.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1407/1551/1.63 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1221/1906/954 mln

1:30 pm : The stock market is trading modestly below its best level of the session, as the turnaround in the heavily-weighted financial (+1.4%) sector continues to provide support to the broader market.

A CNBC commentator said Citigroup (C 28.67, +0.43) and Merrill Lynch (MER 50.62, +0.33) may be planning big job cuts and that the cuts may be necessary to deal with the firms' large write-downs.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said the Fed's economic forecast reflected an expected easing of oil prices to $80-$90 per barrel, and assumes oil prices will ease in 2008, according to Reuters. He also said the Fed is now balancing concerns about inflation with "serious" concerns about growth.DJ30 +43.40 NASDAQ +8.67 SP500 +8.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1373/1553/1.49 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1249/1853/876 mln

1:00 pm : The S&P and Nasdaq hit fresh intraday highs following a pickup in buying interest. The buying interest is broad-based, but there is some relative strength within the financial sector (+1.4%).

16 of the 19 industry groups within the sector are posting a gain. Consumer finance (+3.4%) and regional banks (+2.3%) are pacing the advance. Specialized finance (-0.8%) is the main laggard.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said negatives in the U.S. economy may be gaining momentum, and market contacts have serious concerns about more market deterioration and spill over. He also said the continued depreciation of the dollar is a risk.DJ30 +67.38 NASDAQ +13.71 SP500 +10.67 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1387/1520/1.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1284/1806/790 mln

12:30 pm : Choppy action continues, as stocks go back on the retreat and then recover a bit. The major indices are posting modest gains.

A CNBC commentator noted that there is speculation that President Bush is going to unveil a fiscal stimulus package when he speaks at 2:00 ET, but said he was told Bush will not be making any major policy announcements.

Meanwhile, the flagging Amex Airline Index (+2.5%) continues to advance.DJ30 +33.32 NASDAQ +8.59 SP500 +6.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1440/1452/1.23 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1333/1733/703 mln

12:00 pm : There has been some choppy trading this session on a slow news day. Stocks opened modestly higher as investors looked for bargains following last week's steep decline, but quickly fell into the red, led by tech and financial stocks. At midday, stocks have recovered and are trading with modest gains.

Corporate news was light, although McDonald's (MCD 58.04, +0.99) has seen some buying interest after The Wall Street Journal reported the company will be adding coffee bars in nearly 14,000 restaurants. Many analysts believe McDonald's will provide more of a threat to Dunkin Donuts than Starbucks (SBUX 18.48, +0.37), and the market seems to agree as Starbucks' stock is higher in today's trade.

There were a couple of notable brokerage rating changes.

IBM (IBM 100.20, -0.93) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS before the open. The firm said IBM's hardware and services sales could be pressured because IBM has the largest financial services exposure in the sector. UBS also lowered its targets on Sun Microsystems (JAVA 16.14, -0.17), Dell (DELL 21.58,-0.51) and EMC (EMC 16.27, -0.72). UBS expects lower server and PC spending in 2008 due to economic pressures. The tech sector (-0.4%) has been a laggard throughout the session.

Meanwhile, Best Buy (BBY 47.37, -0.11) was downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Bear Stearns. Shares of Best Buy are handily trailing the S&P 500 Retailing Index (+1.3%).

Crude oil is down a steep 3.0% to $95.02 over concerns that an economic slowdown will lead to a drop in demand. The decline on oil has weighed on the energy sector (-1.2%), but has given a lift to the Amex Airline Index (+1.2%).

Six of the ten sectors are trading higher, led by defensive utilities (+2.0%) and healthcare (+1.8%). Materials (-1.1%) and energy are the main laggards. DJ30 +20.64 NASDAQ +3.73 SP500 +5.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1357/1507/1.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1368/1688/594 mln

11:30 am : The major indices are trading in mixed fashion as stocks extend their recovery efforts. The S&P and Dow are now clutching the flat line. The Nasdaq continues to trade with modest losses, but is well off its lowest level of the session.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the immediate goal is to minimize the impact of the housing downturn on the economy, but he emphasized that no single policy or action will undo the "excesses" of recent years. Paulson also said people should not be surprised or disappointed to see financial institutions announce more asset write-downs.

Crude oil continues to slide, dropping 3.2% to $94.77.DJ30 +1.05 NASDAQ -9.85 SP500 +0.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1537/1284/877 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1632/1374/478 mln

11:00 am : Stocks bounce off their lows, but remain in negative territory. The Nasdaq is underperforming the other major indices, as the tech shares (-1.2%) remain out of favor.

IBM (IBM 99.84, -1.29) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS before the open. The firm said IBM's hardware and services sales could be pressured because IBM has the largest financial services exposure in the sector. UBS also lowered its targets on Sun Microsystems (JAVA 15.90, -0.41), Dell (DELL 21.14, -0.94) and EMC (EMC 16.01, -0.98). UBS expects lower server and PC spending in 2008 due to economic pressures.

DJ30 -41.71 NASDAQ -20.87 SP500 -3.84 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1615/1128/638 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1686/1225/323 mln

10:30 am : Stocks reverse course, led by a decline in influential tech(-1.1%), energy (-1.0%) and financial (-0.5%) sectors. The slide in stocks have spurred some buying interest in Treasuries.

The sectors are split down the middle, with five in the green and five in the red. The defensive oriented sectors continue to outperform.

DJ30 -43.49 NASDAQ -20.19 SP500 -2.84 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1261/1405/389 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1114/1738/203 mln

10:00 am : The stock market continues to trade with modest gains, with all ten economic sectors in positive territory.

The defensive oriented sectors are outperforming, including healthcare (+1.3%), utilities (+1.2%), telecom (+1.2%) and consumer staples (+1.0%). Two of the hardest hit sectors last week, financials (+0.1%) and tech (+0.2%), are underperforming on a relative basis.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average is outperforming, benefiting from a quick decline in crude oil prices. A barrel of crude for February delivery is down 1.4% to $96.57.DJ30 +58.44 NASDAQ +11.17 SP500 +7.99 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 932/1521/171 mln

09:45 am : Stocks open on a modestly higher note. There was little news this morning, and the buying interest is likely due to last week's sharp sell-off.

In corporate news, McDonald's (MCD) is seeing some buying interest after The Wall Street Journal reported the company will be adding coffee bars in nearly 14,000 restaurants.

Meanwhile, Best Buy (BBY) is under pressure after being downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Bear Stearns. The company is acting as a drag on the S&P 500 retailing index, which is a laggard in the early-going.DJ30 +66.75 NASDAQ +11.07 SP500 +9.11

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.8.

08:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. The stock market is poised for a positive start to trading. The economic calendar is empty today, but Atlanta Fed President Lockhart will speak on the U.S. economic outlook at 12:40 ET. Also, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson are slated to speak about the economy, according to CNN.com.

08:29 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.3. Early indications continue to point to a higher start. Oil is down 0.1% to $97.76 per barrel, after topping $100 for the first time last week. There were a few brokerage rating changes of note this morning. IBM (IBM) is modestly lower in pre-market trading after being downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS. Best Buy (BBY) is poised for a lower start after being downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Bear Stearns.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.5. Stock futures suggest a positive opening, as some investors look for bargains following last week’s sharp decline. Also aiding the positive start, McDonald's Corp. (MCD) is planning to install coffee bars at its U.S. locations beginning this year in a move to capture customers from a weakened Starbucks (SBUX). The Consumer Electronics Show is underway in Las Vegas from January 7-10, and should bring some attention to the tech sector.

06:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.5.

06:16 am : FTSE...6359.20...+10.70...+0.2%. DAX...7830.37...+21.68...+0.3%.

06:16 am : Nikkei...14500.55...-190.86...-1.3%. Hang Seng...27179.49...-340.20...-1.2%.