Doctoroe,
I just wrote you a long reply, and it got wiped out. I may follow up later, but for the time being suffice it to say my opinion is based on technical analysis, primarily the 20 week low for Hurst cyclical modeling, which was expected around now.
Fundamentally, I think the economy has never been in worse shape. Every time I trade on fundamentals I lose.
My December Hurst projections for the SPX, based on displaced moving averages (fld's), showed a price projection of approximately 1400 +/-, which has almost been fulfilled.
Although it is too soon to make any kind of new projection based on flds', several other cyclical models bottom around now too. This, IMO, made the potential of a synchronous bottom, followed by a rally stronger, as often the various cycle methodologies followed by different posters on the forums contrast in timing, rather than segue.
Although I have no projection yet based on Hurst methodology, we are early in a new 4.5 year cycle, so the guesstimate would be of a rally.
Intuition is operating here too, I will admit.
Good trading to you,
Deva
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