my top is really just a WAG as it is well outside of my comfort window of a max of about 3 months. i saw a prev top at 1734 and that made a reasonable guess for the high part of my range.
Just my giving two bits. I see SPX and DOW getting new tops come May or so but i see COMPX and NDX struggling to get to new highs--they might touch previous highs but not much more. Tech be the area when people feel most speculative and when earnings mean nothing,when techs start to underperform the cycle is changing and money starts flowing to what "is perceived as value" relative to tech stocks. Another factor, legislation battle on expensing options is getting closer to a decision. If this bill passes companies like CSCO INTC and QCOM earnings will be heavily effected and will hit tech sector, there is a 50/50 chance this will happen--so keep track.(But regardless i think NDX will not get close to 1720---but if they do it will be the greatest loooongterm shorting shorting opportunutity since the year 2000.) a quote <<Coviello and the other industry representatives who testified urged Congress to block a proposal expected from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) later this month. They said the FASB, a 21-year-old private body that sets expensing rules, is likely to require companies to expense employee stock options, using a controversial formula.>> Link to just one article of many, that presents the now desperate effort by Silicon Valley to stop this
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