Haha That was good I love a good line. No, I dont expect that much but lets see what happens in the next two weeks. I think we have some fireworks coming. If lucky maybe I can make enough for another cruise on the QM2. I like your style. ===============================================================
I'm glad you took that the way I intended it. <g>
While not as near term bullish on PM's as you seem to be, I am definitely more bullish than the gold guru below over the longer term.
Murenbeeld Sees 2004 Gold Average $428/Oz On Dollar, Reflation Monday March 8, 4:14 pm ET
TORONTO -(Dow Jones)- Financial analyst Martin Murenbeeld sees further downside for the U.S. dollar, which is a key factor behind his bullish gold forecast of $428/ounce in 2004. Gold is trading Monday at about $400/oz.
Murenbeeld, president of Victoria, B.C.-based research firm M. Murenbeeld & Associates Inc., gave his gold projection Monday at the annual Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention.
His conclusion contrasted with a presentation Sunday by Barclay's Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi, who said most of the fundamental factors underpinning gold had turned neutral or negative; Naqvi said gold could decline toward $350/oz this year.
Murenbeeld puts a 55% probability on the gold price averaging $420/oz this year, a 35% probability on gold at $470/oz, and a 10% probability on gold averaging $326/oz in 2004, which led to his $428 average figure. He sees gold ending this year at $445/oz.
Gold supply and demand factors, including producer "de-hedging" - or gold companies spurring gold demand by exiting their hedge contracts - aren't nearly as significant as the macroeconomic issues of government debt levels, currencies and reflation, Murenbeeld said.
The elements of reflation include low or negative real interest rates, rapid money supply growth, fiscal stimulus and currency weakness. "Almost every major economy is doing one, two, three or four of these things," Murenbeeld said. " They're all trying to boost demand."
The large U.S. current-account deficit "has caught up with the U.S. dollar," Murenbeeld said. He questions why the rest of the world will suddenly invest again in the U.S., noting that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRKb - News) chairman Warren Buffett (News) and other private investors are looking outside the U.S. to find value.
The U.S. and other western countries are building huge debts today, at exactly the wrong time, as baby boomers prepare to retire, he also noted.
Last year, Murenbeeld forecast a probability-weighted 2003 average gold price of $364/oz. The actual average turned out to be $363/oz, he said.
As for news Monday that the Washington Agreement on central bank sales was renewed, Murenbeeld said the details had been expected by the gold market. The latest agreement will limit 15 European central banks to combined gold sales of up to 500 metric tons a year until 2009, up from 400 tons a year in a previous agreement.
The U.K government said it hadn't signed the renewed agreement, but said it won't immediately sell any more of its gold reserves.
Murenbeeld said the deal's renewal brings about transparency and removes uncertainty about future central-bank sales.
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