Replies to post #28061 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[dougSF30]

When you redefine the markets, lots of things become unsurprising, don't they? Talk about revisionist history...

Doug

[KeithDust2000]

wbmw, I explained the exact same thing to chipguy in a lengthy post. It´s a question of having a realistic viewpoint. You read the post already, I have nothing to add.

[sgolds]

wbmw -

But Why is it telling that a microprocessor best positioned in the 2->4-way space can outsell a microprocessor best positioned for the >4-way space?

An answer.

You are technically correct that Itanium is now aimed at a much smaller market than Opteron. However, that is a pedantic argument (much like the start of the millenium argument). This is why:

First, Intel (and HP) set the bar for themselves back in 1994 when they claimed that IPF would effectively displace x86 by the start of the decade. Not only in servers, but on desktops also. It is not really accurate to say that Itanium was positioned at >4P, rather it is more accurate to say that Itanium has be repositioned at >4P. This point does not seem to be lost on the buying public - Itanium plays in a smaller market each year (with promises of a larger market in the future).

Second, Intel (and HP) claimed that x86 would not be an effective way to migrate to 64-bits. AMD disproved that convincingly. AMD introduced an architecture which is a roadmap away from messy segmented, register-starved, stack-oriented legacy x86 and into a world of simple, flat architecture x86-64. As discussed here in length about a week ago, the AMD64 design is a roadmap to cut loose the parts of x86 which so irritate compiler writers and programmers. All done with compatibility.

Third, x86 has a history of defeating every attempt to displace it in the market. If the best way to predict the future is to apply the lessons of the past then Itanium is running against history. Computer-literate people sense that (even if they haven't fully vocalized the concept). Smaller, cheaper, faster - that is the mantra. Itanium violates the first two items. AMD64 rides with the wave of history, even those not familiar with the details expect it to overtake Itanium later this decade.

Fourth, this is the traditional David vs. Golliath battle. As long as David looks competitive, David always gets better press! The world roots for Golliath to stumble.

As a corollary to this last point, all markets tend to shake out to two competitors (unless the government grants a monopoly). If a monopoly naturally forms (like Microsoft) then a competitor will emerge (like Linux). In the case of processors, the market shook down to Intel vs. AMD. This is the mature, steady-state processor market.