Replies to post #55987 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

More market-share figures for US HIV market:

>Do you happen to know the fraction of the HIV market which involves treatment-naive patients?<

I assume you’re asking about the US market, specifically. It’s about 1/3 treatment-naïve and 2/3 treatment-experienced.

Referring to the color codes in the pie chart in #msg-25102913, the corresponding market shares in the treatment-experienced setting are roughly as follows: orange 5%, maroon 40%, yellow 45%, green 10%.

Using the same color codes, the overall number of patients in the US HIV market are approximately: orange 120K, maroon 170K, yellow 180K, green 40K. Total US market 510K patients.

Regards, Dew

[DewDiligence]

The chart in the following post breaks down the US and selected European HIV markets by lines of therapy.

[DewDiligence]

Re: Economic relevance of HIV lines of therapy

>Do you happen to know the fraction of the HIV market which involves treatment-naive patients?<

In #msg-25207136 I posted that the rough breakdown was 1/3 treatment-naïve and 2/3 treatment-experienced. However, the proportion of the market from the first line is steadily rising because the first-line therapies are now so darn effective that many patients stay on the first-line regimen for a decade or longer. For a typical patient, the combined duration of the first line and second line will be more than a decade.

Consequently, HIV drugs that cannot target first- or second-line therapy will be relegated to being commercial dogs. To be serious candidates for the first- or second-line settings, new drugs must be qD, have minimal incremental toxicity when added to Truvada, and must have a high barrier to resistance that requires multiple mutations (unlike, for example, Sustiva).