Replies to post #213127 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Sherlock356]

"a crash scenario down to the old lows around 7500. I think this could develop quickly."

One of these times you'll be right. Broken clock theory?

[Sherlock356]

"a crash scenario down to the old lows around 7500. I think this could develop quickly."

One of these times you'll be right. Broken clock theory?

[mikemargin]

I have to say I have some issues with all the bullishness out there that I see
1)As someone pointed out The Trans are getting whacked and have failed to confirm this high....Bearish
2)Greenspan has started his slow slide to rate increases.....bearish
3)P/C despite like 5 straight down weeks in the naz has been no higher then .70 with only one day exception that I can remember
4)Huge new supply coming to market, insiders selling, rampent speculation........Bearish
5)Lots of the high fliers have gotten obliterated, AMZN, SNDK etc Have really broken down(as has NDX, and almost sox).
6)AII surveys are at 55-60% bulls.........Bearish
7)Dollar is in a steep bounce..........bearish for stocks
8)Comodity prices, like Oil are at levels that not long ago would be thought super recessionary. Yet all the smart economists now dismiss it as a non issue. How is 36 dollar oil not an issue all of a sudden in lieu of consumer discretionary spending? How, along with Health care and nat gas etc isnt this going to reduce real GDP?......Bearish

I know there are alotof technichal reasons to be long here, I as with most of you live and die by technichal analysis. However it has been my experience that TA is very bad at the major tops or bottom. In Oct 2002 everychart was breaking down and we all thought(TA guys)That we were going to some ungodly Number. I see today as the flipside of that coin. The momentum has ended here and we are at a major resistence point. It is possible that we headfake over(we have allready done so in certain industrial groups) but my view is that we are within 5% of the top here in the best case scenario. I dont think we will see 11400 on the dow, I think we would be hardpressed to get to 10900. I wont mention the fact that May is rolling arround and whatever move we have left needs to get a kick before the may and go away scenario comes into play into the election. Thats 8 weeks folks. I will also remind you that late march 2000 was when the first big cracks were seen in the indicies in 2000. I am not saying I know what will happen, or that I will be right. However maybee stepping back and re analyzing whats going on may be profitable. Remember the high fliers and tech were the first to crack in 2000 as well.

[Velociraptor_]

I think you might be putting too much together there. The concept is basically a scenario that has high odds of playing out, but has restrictions. The favored path is a potential high at the mentioned price target and approximate date. The break point is what kills the scenario so in that case, a move below 10,480 prior to March 22 would invalidate the scenario and suggest another high probability path instead which of course would be bearish near term. The break below 10,480 is not favored (though there is always the possibility it could happen even if it does not appear likely) and as long as we bounce and make a run towards the target and stay above the break point, it remains active until that date.

A break below 10,480 by the way, is bearish but does not guarantee a crash scenario back to the old lows.

I hope this helps.