Replies to post #14916 on Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL)

[jbothoo7]

I would take this run that appears you will be getting on a blow-off top in AAPL (and most other equities and exchanges) and pocket that money and reach around a pat yourself on the back.

I am counting on low float, speculative stocks to begin a major run. If that happens, the beginning of the end will be signaled.

[SyndicateTwo]

Just remember it goes up until it doesn't anymore. AAPL is no different. I was trading it back in 2000 and specifically at $116 when they had just reported record earnings back then and the street was all kiddy about them. I remember it so well that specific trade because I went long at $116 and then went on a 7 day cruise. The Friday morning before I was to leave the next Saturday I sat watching it fall in amazement, but didn't think much of it because of the growth they were having.

Well, my cruise just happened to have satelite TV in the bar and the following Wed I clearly remember sitting in the bar watching AAPL on the CNBC lower ticker pass by at $99.

The point is, all the same happy talk was back then as is now. Stocks when they enter a bear market don't do what you think they should, no matter how much they make. PE multiples are the most over used useless valuation tool out there. If they weren't, home builders wouldn't have traded at only 8 or 10 PE througout the boom years. All these tech stocks including MRVL wouldn't trade at 30+ times while not experiencing anything near the growth the home builders had over the last 3 to 4 years. It makes no sense.

Why does C only trade at a 10 or so PE now when they bring in over $25 BILLION a quarter? Even with the writedowns. You see? There's no consistency to PE valuations. And, that makes them useless.

AAPL's growth will slow because although they are moving into foreign markets which should bode well for them, they do sell the highest price mp3 players out there. The rest of the world isn't so hip as us when it comes to mp3 players. There are 50 million other mp3 players out there cheaper.

I'm telling you, it's in a 5th wave and we're on the verge of a bear market sometime late next year. When that happens, AAPL's 50 PE will get crushed. No one will pay up for earnings in a bear market like that. 50 will become 25 faster than you can imagine. And $200+ will fast become $100+ or less.

Just have an exit strategy. You saw how fast it fell from $190 to $150. 2 weeks? Imagine a bear market condition.