Need it to go to $193 to make 100% on my Dec $220 calls i got in this morning, but that would be a all time high, and could then break out further.....if it were able to make it there.
Market Update 071207 http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html 4:20 pm : It wasn't a very exciting trade today as the stock market chopped around in a narrow range. There was some exciting news, though, with respect to the labor market that left market watchers feeling a bit better about economic prospects in the U.S.
The news of note was that nonfarm payrolls rose 94,000 in November versus an expectation for an increase of approximately 80,000. October nonfarm payrolls were revised up slightly to 170,000 from 166,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.7% (consensus 4.8%), hourly earnings rose 0.5% (consensus +0.3%) and the average workweek was on economists' mark of 33.8 hours.
The takeaway from the report was twofold. First, it delivered the tacit message that the economy continued to grow in November and that there is no sign of recession. Secondly, it reduced the probability of the FOMC cutting the fed funds rate by 50 basis points at its December 11 meeting.
The latter consideration took some wind out of the Treasury market where the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 10 basis points to 4.11%.
Arguably, it took some wind out of the stock market, too, which has benefited of late from the aggressive rate cut expectation. Overall, we would attribute today's modest weakness in the broader market to some profit taking after a strong run entering today's trade that saw the S&P 500 gain 100 points, or 7.1%, since the close on November 26.
The financial sector (-1.0%) weighed the heaviest on the broader market as negative comments from Merrill Lynch on the consumer economy cast a pall on the stocks, particularly American Express (AXP 56.96, -2.57), Discover (DFS 16.76, -0.56) and Capital One (COF 49.80, -2.63), which the firm downgraded from Neutral to Sell. Capital One was also downgraded by Morgan Stanley from Overweight to Underweight.
Altogether five sectors traded up today and five sectors traded down, which makes for a cozy characterization of today's market as mixed. The financial sector was the only sector that moved at least 1.0%.
The energy sector (-0.21%) garnered the distinction as being Friday's worst-performing area. It slipped along with oil prices, which were unable to hold above $90 and fell 2.1% to $88.28.
Volume at the NYSE was relatively light as traders played things fairly conservatively going into the weekend and ahead of the FOMC meeting where Briefing.com expects the fed funds rate to be cut by 25 basis points to 4.25%.
For the week, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P gained 1.9%, 1.7%, and 1.6%, respectively. DJ30 +5.69 NASDAQ -2.87 SP500 -2.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1518/1447/1.94 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1553/1599/1.19 bln
3:30 pm : As we head into the final half-hour of the trading week, the stock market remains glued to the unchanged mark.
The materials sector (+1.0%) continues to provide leadership. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Retailing Index (+0.9%) is also showing strength. Retailers were under pressure yesterday after Target issued a warning.
The heavily weighted financial sector (-0.7%) is the main laggard, and is holding back the broader market.
Crude oil closed the session off $2.08 to $88.14 per barrel.DJ30 +21.55 NASDAQ -1.46 SP500 -0.66 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1565/1397/1.55 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1533/1597/854 mln
3:00 pm : Stocks get a bit of a boost, but continue to be range-bound. The Dow is posting slight gains, while the Nasdaq and S&P are posting slight losses. The Amex Airline Index (+2.7%) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+1.8%) are outperforming thanks to the slide in crude oil prices.
Shares of fast food operator Yum! Brands (YUM 39.55, +0.50) are outperforming after the company outlined its expectations for growth, consistency, and cash generation, in addition to EPS growth. The company, which operates the KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut fast food chains, remains committed to building leading brands in China and international markets, improving its domestic position, and providing consistent returns to generate EPS growth of at least 10%. DJ30 +19.59 NASDAQ -2.84 SP500 -1.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1553/1387/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1505/1610/786 mln
2:30 pm : The major indices trade in mixed fashion near the unchanged mark. A look at this session's S&P 500 graph might lead one to believe it has been a wild day thus far, but keep in mind it only looks that way because today's range has been so tight. In fact, the S&P's range is a mere 7.5 points.
The better than expected jobs data reduced the market’s expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut at the Dec. 11 FOMC meeting. Although, futures are still fully pricing in at least a 25 basis point cut.
Currently, futures show a 28% chance of a 50 basis point cut and a 72% chance of 25 basis point cut. Yesterday, futures showed a 36% chance of a 50 basis point cut and a 64% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
The median economist forecast calls for a 25 basis point cut. The current fed funds rate is 4.5%. DJ30 +12.68 NASDAQ -4.92 SP500 -1.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1631/1310/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1573/1545/714 mln
2:00 pm : The major indices recover a bit, with the Dow back in positive territory. The S&P's and Nasdaq's losses remain slight.
In a lawsuit brought by shareholders of UnitedHealth Group (UNH 56.78, +0.80) last year along with the Securities and Exchange Commission, former chief executive William McGuire will surrender more than $400 million in stock options and other compensation to settle claims against the health insurer's stock option practices.
In addition to a previously announced repricing of the stock options awarded to him, McGuire will forfeit more than $600 million of the wealth he accumulated during his tenure. Shares are up 1.5% this session on the news.DJ30 +6.34 NASDAQ -6.77 SP500 -1.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1674/1259/1.24 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1637/1463/652 mln
1:30 pm : The major indices fall into the red with the S&P 500 hitting fresh intraday lows. The financial sector (-0.9%) has reversed course course into the main laggard position.
Within the sector, there is notable weakness with consumer finance (-4.1%) due to the credit card companies downgrades. The thrifts & mortgages group (-2.5%) is also a laggard, which follows its rally yesterday.
Despite the 3.1% plunge in crude oil, the CRB Index, which tracks a basket of commodities, is only down 0.2%. The losses in oil are being offset by gains in grains (+1.7%) and livestock (+0.8%).
Meanwhile the Dollar Index is down 0.12%, which follows its 1% rise yesterday. DJ30 -12.57 NASDAQ -10.92 SP500 -3.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1590/1322/1.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1484/1607/590 mln
1:00 pm : The major indices still have not ventured far from yesterday's closing price. The Dow and S&P are posting a slight gain, while the Nasdaq is trading with a slight loss as the underperformance of Amgen (AMGN 52.73, -2.42) continues to weigh on the Composite.
16 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average components are posting a gain. 3M (MMM 85.19, +1.37) and Boeing (BA 99.11, +1.33) are providing leadership, while American Express (AXP 57.33, -2.20) and IBM (IBM 108.77, -0.93) are the main laggards.DJ30 +15.29 NASDAQ -3.14 SP500 +0.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1509/1368/1.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1423/1638/537 mln
12:30 pm : Much of the same as the stock market continues to hover near the unchanged mark. Of note, financials (+0.3%) have recovered into positive territory, but those gains are being offset by weakness in energy (-0.4%) and tech (-0.2%)
Shares of Macrovision (MVSN 19.70, -6.29) are getting hammered after the company announced a plan to acquire Gemstar-TV Guide (GMST 4.90, -1.08) for approximately $2.8 billion. Investors clearly have not taken a liking to the deal, sending both stocks plummeting. If the deal were to fall through, Macrovision would pay a breakup fee of about $56 million. DJ30 +18.37 NASDAQ -0.56 SP500 +1.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1494/1373/971 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1391/1655/487 mln
12:00 pm : The major indices are trading slightly above the unchanged mark. The lack of selling pressure is a welcome sign for the bulls considering the S&P 500 is already up 26 points this week after rising 40 points the week before. The main area of focus has been the November jobs data, which were modestly better than the market expected.
November nonfarm payrolls rose 94,000. This represents a 0.8% annual rate of increase and is a sizeable enough gain to keep recession fears at bay. The October increase was revised to show an increase of 170,000 from a previously reported 166,000 gain.
Average hourly earnings rose a stronger than expected 0.5%. This gain adds to the increase in payrolls to raise consumer purchasing power and will help keep consumer spending rising at a moderate rate. Average weekly earnings are now up 3.8% over the past year.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.7%.
The December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 74.5, down slightly from the previous month and mostly in-line with expectations. Confidence swings on political and other headlines (such as declines in home prices), but simply does not correlate well with consumer spending. It has little predictive value.
Six of the ten sectors are trading higher, with materials (+0.7%) posting the largest gain.
Utilities (-0.3%) are the main laggard, and was the only sector to post a loss yesterday.
Crude oil has traded in a highly volatile manner this week, and today is no different. Crude for January delivery is down 1.9% to $88.52 per barrel following its more than 3% rise yesterday. DJ30 +25.69 NASDAQ +0.94 SP500 +1.90 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1538/1275/840 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1512/1473/414 mln
11:30 am : The major indices continue to hold near yesterday's closing price. Bonds prices haven taken a hit due to the better than expected payrolls report, and an uptick in inflation concerns. The 10-year note price, down 23 ticks pushing its yield up to 4.10%, is at its worst level since mid November
The three most heavily-weighted sectors, financials (-0.1%), tech (-0.4%) and energy (-0.4%), are all in the red, which is preventing the market from making a gain.DJ30 -4.30 NASDAQ -7.82 SP500 -2.15 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1561/1186/749 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1485/1479/350 mln
11:00 am : Stocks dip into the red, although losses are modest. The trading range has been tight so far, with buyers and sellers lacking conviction.
Credit card companies American Express (AXP 57.17, -2.34), Discover (DFS 17.01, -0.31) and Capital One (COF 50.47, -1.96) are laggards after a number of downgrades this morning. Capital One was downgraded to Underweight from Overweight and had its price target lowered to $45 from $88 at Morgan Stanley. Discover and American Express were downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.DJ30 -6.50 NASDAQ -9.29 SP500 -2.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1521/1190/628 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1480/1423/277 mln
10:30 am : The Dow and S&P are hugging the unchanged mark, while the Nasdaq is posting a slight loss.
Biotech company Amgen (AMGN 53.37, -1.78) is under pressure on reports that the company is in discussions with the FDA with regards to updating safety warnings for anemia drugs. Amgen is playing a large role in the underperformance of the Nasdaq.
The December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 74.5, down slightly from the previous month and mostly in-line with expectations. Confidence swings on political and other headlines (such as declines in home prices), but simply does not correlate well with consumer spending. It has little predictive value.DJ30 +8.70 NASDAQ -5.80 SP500 +0.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1487/1111/464 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1401/1421/157 mln
10:00 am : After making some slight gains, the stock market retreats back to the unchanged mark.
Six sectors are trading higher, although no one sector is showing particular strength in the early-going. The technology sector (-0.3%) is a notable laggard, which is weighing on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite.
Crude oil, down 1.6% to $88.77 per barrel, is starting to sell-off after showing little conviction in overnight trade. DJ30 +5.21 NASDAQ -6.50 SP500 +1.32 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1281/1116/257 mln
09:40 am : Stocks open mixed, but are basically flat as investors digest the November jobs data. The increase in November nonfarm payrolls was "good enough." There is no sign of recession.
Payrolls rose 94,000 in November. That isn't a huge gain, but it does represent a 0.8% annual rate of increase and it is certainly not receding. It is about in-line with expectations and continues to reflect an economy experiencing moderate growth.
Average hourly earnings rose a stronger than expected 0.5%. This gain adds to the increase in payrolls to raise consumer purchasing power and will help keep consumer spending rising at a moderate rate. The unemployment rate held at 4.7%.
The data will calm recession fears. The data are trending steady and are consistent with current forecasts of 1.5% to 2% real GDP growth for the fourth quarter. DJ30 +3.58 NASDAQ -6.23 SP500 +0.38
09:14 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.8.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures slip a bit, but still point to a positive to flat opening as investors digest the jobs data. Crude oil, which rallied yesterday, is down 0.2% to $90.09.
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.3. Futures climb slightly higher and then make further gains on the November job numbers. Change in nonfarm payrolls came in at 94K versus the 80K expectation. The unemployment rate was reported to be 4.7% compared to the 4.8% expectation.
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.5. Early indications suggest a slightly lower start ahead of the November jobs report, set for release at 8:30 ET. Economists expect a reading of 80K. Last month came in at 166K. In other developments, a Merrill Lynch downgrade of Dow component American Express (AXP) from Neutral to Sell and an earnings warning from Palm (PALM) are acting as drags on the early proceedings.
06:22 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.3.
06:21 am : FTSE...6549.70...+64.10...+1.0%. DAX...7988.82...+48.24...+0.6%.
06:21 am : Nikkei...15956.37...+82.29...+0.5%. Hang Seng...28842.47...-716.45...-2.4%.
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