Replies to post #29418 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[S2_take_us_there]

Pmiles, What other market are you referring to? Please elaborate.

[BlissBull]

Peter, I think option #1 is the obvious choice by process of elimination...

first off, if this new bear market (major crash) is just beginning, we are obviously heading for much lower lows; thereby eliminating option #3...

secondly, if the major averages have been extremely right translated for decades, it makes no sense whatsoever that they suddenly switch to extremely left translated; thereby eliminating option #2...

that leaves me with option #1... "a major (4 1/2 year) low in December"...

MAJOR CRASH TIME!!!

[airedale88]

pete, if one looks at the 9 SP500 sectors only financial XLF and the consumer discretionary XLY sectors took out the august lows. these are the sectors most affected by the recent financial problems. we either saw a 10 wk low around oct 22 or 24 and the very recent decline has been a cycle straddle for broad indexes due to the financial news, or we had a slightly longer 10 wk cycle (12+ wks)which has or is bottoming now. i'm updating a commonality model to see if that can be resolved.
as far as the 4.5 yr cycle bottom, if Hurst's cycle model and the accompanying cycle principles have any validity, the august 07 low should be the resolution for that bottom.