Replies to post #111331 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[oil-cowboy]

I honestly have a hard time seeing Cheveron going in on a consortium. Doesn't seem like their style. However, someone had to initiate the investigation (which I believe was either Exxon or Chev.) and for them to let it slip away to the Chinese or Saudi's would be a major screw up.

Just hope drilling stands for 08 as planned. I hope we get put into better shoes, but I will take drilling as a bare minimum goal.

I have to say, tho, lots of respected opinions saying roughly the same thing peaks my attention. And if the oil is truly there as we have figured all along, then its ineviatable that we get taken to a place that we deserve.

EO doesn't step down to let the co. languish and flail in the wind. He has always had a plan. I believe this time is not different.

Great post Balance.

[Opus X]

BB, I have always been of the opinion that the structure of any organization is best when it is fits the process. In this case, if this area is a huge pool of oil and it overlaps into other blocs, then it would be best to eliminate entities "friction" and to maximize efficiency by assembling a "process" partnership as described.

So yes, the theory is good and possible. I'd like to think that with something that is as huge as this would be and the time period that it would take to assemble, there would be some leaks of information, such as the richkans, oilphants etc. This may be confirming the suspicions.

Once again, thanks for your time and thoughts.

Opus X

[majicathome]

BB, you are a master at researching, connnecting and summarizing information given by posters on this board. Imo many here, including myself, overbought here knowing the assets are way undervalued and something was going to pop any time, and continued to think that year after year while still accumulating and watching the pps free fall.

What I continue to not understand is if there is something as imminent as 1st quarter 2008 how could that deal be kept from spreading around the oil patch. It always comes back to the pps. To me, it defies all investing sense that there wouldn't be some accumulation by anyone that catches leaks of this happening. It still comes down to how can we possibly go to a 5 year low, .197 this week, when ERHE is more solid in it's assets with drilling, relatively speaking, right around the corner.

I continue to believe this is the investment of a lifetiime and very much hope we start to see something reflected in the pps. Thanks for all you do to assist all of us longs to continue to see light at the end of the ERHE journey.

[oil-cowboy]

You said...."You tell me guys....would this be worth the wait? Would you tie your current shares into a company with this type of potential future earnings?"

I think most here, basically see the tremendous value in waiting out the drilling campaign. It would be silly not to hold most of your shares for this. Simply put, if someone is willing to pay us X for our shares, you and I both know its worth 2-4 times that easily. Maybe more depending of what they find. If this newly formed co would be "legitimate currency" for the investing public, you could assured it would be a safe place to reap the rewards of the JDZ and GOG. All eyes (sec/doj especially) would be watching so no funny games would be played IMO. Addax would be a safe bet too.

If your scenario plays out, my feet will be up in a hammock somewhere very warm, checking periodically for drilling updates. No worries.

[tryoty]

Balance, you can be my Santa Claus this year!

Or, if you prefer, you can put on a bunny suit and be the Easter Bunny in the Spring.

Certainly a Scenario worth waiting for!

I have to admit though, a 10 bagger AFTER a pop to the $6 range would exceed even MY wildest expectations.

I might be able to retire early if that scenario plays out!

;-)

[petemantx]

Why would ERHC cease to exist if a consortium is formed to develop the JDZ? Sinopec, Addax, Anadarko, and Chevron would also be in the consortium and they won't cease to exist. All a consortium would do is change the assets in the JDZ from percentages of blocks to a percentage of the newly formed consortium. ERHC would still be able to develop non-JDZ assets (as our picks in the EEZ) alone without the consortium becoming involved as would all other consortium members in their other worldwide endeavors. Please clarify this point.

Secondly, I am not clear on the rig issue and will state how I have interpreted posts re: same and would appreciate being informed if I have interpreted incorrectly.

1. ADDAX published info re: AA contract for 5 wells/5 options
of which ADDAX contracted AA for 4 wells and 4 options and
SINOPEC contracted AA for 1 well and 1 option.

2. ADDAX is looking for a "rig of opportunity" for 1 well
and 1 option and is expected to get same but it is
currently not confirmed.

3. Are some saying ADDAX gave back a well and option from
the AA contract since they are expecting the same from
the new "rig of opportunity"? This would make no sense
as they need all the rig slots they can get and the AA
is supposedly contracted at very favorable rates.

4. Re: "rig of opportunity" It just seems odd / not quite
right that they would be able to secure a rig for just
1 well and option.

5. How did the Scarebo (sp?) rig come into play on the board
when it does not seem to be a deepwater rig?

6. AA is now due out of drydock about May 08 so after KOSMOS contract we should be getting it 1Q09? Is this timeframe as others see the current situation? If so, time slippage of only 3-4 months from earlier expectations and ADDAX has always said the AA timeframe was fluid so no terribly unexpected news.

Would appreciate all feedback as to any mistakes in my interpretations of posts and how others think things currently stand.

[texsun2003]

BB, I like your theory. A large collaborative group coming together to explore the JDZ and EEZ would certainly be to our advantage, given the prodigious rights we hold. Many possibilities are out there. IMO, there are many (EO, JS, CVX, ETC) who have a very good grasp of how much oil is down there. They certainly know a lot more than any of us individual investors.
Buyin, buyout, formation of a new entity, share swap Addax/ERHE
are all possibilities. I have never sold or traded ERHE. Over the past five years I have added when possible having started at .08/sh. Now w/ six figures plus, am comfortable w/ just letting it all play out in due time. However it all plays out, IMHO $5-6 per sh is not at all an unreasonable expectation, particularly w/ the move toward $100/barrel oil.
Thanks for your constant and consistent DD and dot connection.
GLTA...

[jdubs]

BB: great post! I especially appreciated your thinking with the "assume at .30 cents we're halted. A "consortium of companies forming a new publicly held entity" is put to action, and ERHC shareholders are allowed to sell their shares of ERHC for a "about" $6 deal OR....OR....they can enlist 10 of their ERHC shares for one share of the newly formed company. This would put the start up price of the newly formed company at $60 if a 10:1 is put into play."

Would make for a nice XMAS en Tejas!

Best to you!
J

[DegenerateGambler]

Balance, great post as usual. Although I fully believe that scenario is very likely and I think the majority here would also feel that way, what does the market think? Your scenario values EHRE at $6 while the share price is in the low twenties. It would appear from that there is less than a 4% chance of getting that price. The market is very skeptical about this company, there are too many black clouds over the company. But as I always remind myself, if the oil is there, which I am a believer, than the rewards will come. I just hope this scenario develops in the near future and in many many fortnights.

[Jim Long]

BB, You are incredible, and that is a resounding compliment!
If you are not an attorney you missed your calling. If I was in need of a logical lawyer you be the man.

This certainly makes very good sense. I just wish Oily's track record, relative to the ongoing timeline, contained an accuracy percentage which increased the probability of your postulation. I like how you tied it together and it could easily happen. I would like to know if you gave all contributors equal weight or to what degree you discount any or all.

Thanks for taking the time to present a very hopeful and business-practical scenario. It may be only a dream but what a beautiful one it is!

Jim

[tryoty]

Balance, this ties in with recent rumblings...

that the JDZ as a whole is not one big pool of oil, but rather a collection of dozens of smaller pockets of light sweet, none of which is "small", just not economically viable on their own. That was the justification explaining why XOM sold out of block 1, they didn't want to play nice with everyone and jointly develop the entire JDZ and it wasn't economical for them to stand alone in just 1 block.

Considering the drilling and development costs, various rights allocation percentages, and unknown distribution of oil in the blocks, I can see where it quickly becomes impossible to track who pays what and who gets what in a JV once production starts.

Enter "GOG Oil, Inc".

A separate entity, partially own by all the participants, is created to develop and exploit the resources of the JDZ. It pays all costs, and profits from the operation are distributed to each of the parent entities based on share ownership of "GOG Oil, Inc".

It's an elegant solution to a problem that risked becoming an unmanageable can of worms.

It makes too much sense not to at least be considered. Where do I sign? :-)

Great post!

Thanks to all the Vets that made and make this country possible. Your sacrifices haven't and don't go unrecognized by this poster.

[Nightdaytrader]

Anadarko keeps Belford Dolphin

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Dolphin Drilling, a subsidiary of Fred.Olsen Energy ASA, has received a confirmation of a further three year commitment for the Belford Dolphin drillship.

The award which is subject to final agreement on contract will follow in direct continuation from present contract with Anadarko which expires in April 2010.

The estimated contract value is US $575m, Dolphin said. Thursday, November 8, 2007

[rheddle]

Balance - is there any update when drilling may take place? I cannot post a chart dating back to 2003, but .20 is really trying to hold (support during Q1 2003) at the moment and there were indications that drilling would take place in 2008 some time ago.

The .30's tried to hold earlier this year and were chipped away from above. .20 looks like it may be a bottom, but will only hold if something takes place fundamentally, because ERHE have been waiting to drill for 2 years now in light of equipment being in short supply.

I always enjoy your posts, but some of those you quote don't have a good record IMO. What, in your opinion, is out there fundamentally / coming fundamentally that will turn this stock around?

Thanks, R.

[balance_builder]

Still seems to have legs IMHO. Seems SEO's transfer of ERHC shares to a new holding entity of Chrome can't be just by chance....rather a premeditated move prompted by his comment of "enhancing his holdings"???

Note how oilphant made mention of Chrome back in December of 2006.....and now we see SEO moving his shareload around.....

"Posted by: oilphant
In reply to: None Date:12/23/2006 6:08:29 PM
Post #of 113878

Merry CXOMAS all!
5 players 5 presents
Do we create a Chrome message board in the New Year?"


Then we have SFreed making a several comments that could correlate well with the post I am replying to when he stated in part on 8-23-07,

"He may sell some then, but I think something a little more creative is more likely to occur."


On 10-24-07 SFreed also made a comment that correlates well with the post I am replying to when he stated in part:

"Things might get interesting now that EEL is back trading. The combination could be very interesting."


Here's yet another correlation to the post I am replying to where SFreed posted on 8-13-07 in part (Note: recall our lack of CEO/CFO and potential reasoning for),

"As I understand it (I was not involved but heard from a very credible source and confirmed from others after the fact) the deal was a swap of at least part of his shares.

The result would have been him maintaining the upside on his entire holding through ownership of shares of another company, new board members and some new management and him stepping down as Chairman."


Here's an SFreed comment that also seems to go with the same flow which was posted up on 8-16-07, 4 days after SEO stepped down as COB.

"This is wonderful news for ERHC. It paves the way for the
investigations to be dealt with, uncertainties to be cleared up and further partnerships to be entered into. The value of our company has increased dramatically today as a result.

I will comment more later, but we have turned a corner.

The King is dead. Long live the King."


My my....isn't this SFreed 8-16-07 post enlightening??? Makes me wonder is Starcrest is in the same Chrome subsidiary where SEO moved 1/3 of his ERHC holdings to????????

"Starcrest is a wholly owned by Chrome (http://www.starcrestnigeria.com/)."

Yep...verified via starcrest link:

ABOUT STARCREST NIGERIA LIMITED.

"Starcrest Nigeria is a rising star in the natural resources sector in West Africa, and is a Member of the Chrome Group of Companies"



Another indication from SFreed on 7-5-07 as to what the future could hold???

"However, what is to stop him from selling his shares to another company (and I'm not talking a major) for shares so he keeps the upside? He then remains an interested and viable shareholder (make that part of the deal) without the same problems. The only thing he gives up the the Chairman's seat. What is to stop that company from making a follow on bid for shares to the rest of us? If its a company with credible management, experience in the region and they come with a reasonable share bid, we'd really have to consider it.
The only way I'd sell is if I get to keep the upside - swap shares for shares."


SFreed followed the above statement the next day (7-6-07) with this post (see below). I wondered at that time why he didn't just say Addax. Now I think I know why....because Addax will only be a partner in this newly formed company where several teams/players will throw in their presents:

"I think the following has a fairly good chance of occuring within the next 12 months:

Because of the ever increasing pressure from the SEC and DoJ (this is a certainty), Offor could be willing to sell/swap his shares in ERHC to another public company for shares (not cash). This company would certainly have to be very familiar with the region and have its own politcal connections (obviously not in conflict with Offor's).

From there, the acquiror could make a follow-on offering on the same terms to the rest of the shareholders.

This would be attractive to Offor for a number of reasons:
1. He maintains an upside on ERHC's assets and rights.
2. Depending on the size of the acquiror, he could end up being a significant shareholder and able to maintain a board seat. This is an important for the ego factor.
3. It would be better for Offor is the acquiror is not a US company. This would allow Offor to get his ownership of the assets outside of the grasp of US regulators. This insulates him against any potential judgement in the US.

I would think this would be attractive to the rest of us shareholders:
1. We maintain an upside on the assets and rights.
2. With Offor remaining a significant shareholder, we maintain his interest and connections to ensure our interests in the region are protected. This is very important to a number of people who think we lose the game if Offor stops playing.
3. If the deal is done with a company with its own connections, we are even more secure.
4. So long as the acquiror is listed in a reasonable jurisdiction (UK, Canada, Hong Kong, Australia) we can be happy with the liquidity.
5. Presumably the acquiror will have real management and operations that would dovetail nicely with ERHC's assets and further rights. In this case 1 + 1 = 3 for everyone.

This is an opinion in reading the tea leaves, not a statement based on fact. We can think amongst ourselves who might fit this profile."


The 10K's acknowlegement of SEO dividing his shares between two Chrome Holdings is most interesting and should have everyone focusing their attention on same. While I know this transfer of shares happened between the last 2 10K's....I don't know exactly when. I am noting that it "is possible" that this was a very recent exchange and we'll see the correct filings in a matter of days as they have 10 days to file a schedule 13D.

Interesting link tieing Starcrest and Petrobra's together...a trusted by STP'ers Oil company.

Makes one go hmmmmmm??? Throw Petrobra's into the list of co's listed in the post I am replying to. There was also a hint, at one time, of Petrobra's being interested in EEL.

EEL Properties
ERHC Properties
AFREN Properties?
Starquest Properties by way of Chrome?

Nah...cosolidation can't be happening, can it??? This from SPP119, a trusted poster on the EEL and an ERHC shareholder:

Risk-Averse Investors Shun Small Oil Cos, Boosting M&A
by James Herron Dow Jones Newswires Thursday, December 13, 2007


LONDON Dec 13, 2007 (Dow Jones Newswires)
As the credit crunch bites, risk-averse investors are taking flight to quality energy stocks and hammering many small oil and gas companies, potentially triggering a wave of consolidation that could see two-thirds of energy listings on London's Alternative Investment Market vanish, say industry executives.


Ninety-dollar a barrel oil may have helped such companies to weather the worst effects but the sector is still in for a rough ride as investors shun companies struggling to execute projects in an overheated market.
"We've seen a material shift from investors," said Simon Ashby-Rudd, Executive Managing Director of Corporate Finance at Tristone Capital Ltd, adding that they are favoring medium-sized companies that already have oil and gas production, leaving smaller more speculative exploration stocks in trouble.

The collapse of the market in subprime U.S. mortgage securities this summer has prompted many banks and investors to shun risky investments as quickly as they had gobbled them up. But even as previously staid markets like interbank lending have seized up, the high risk oil and gas sector has avoided the worst of it.

"Banks generally view lending to the oil and gas sector as much more secure because you have a hard asset there to take security over," said John Hamilton, Executive Director of Oil and Gas at Dutch investment bank ABN Amro Bank Ltd. (AABPL.KA). The rise in the oil price close to $100 a barrel last month has also helped, he added.

"It's not quite as negative as it has been in other sectors...but it should become a more conservative lending environment," Hamilton said.

A more conservative approach from investors in AIM-listed oil and gas companies has begun to have a significant impact, quite apart from the credit crunch.

As the oil price rose from $35 a barrel in 2000 to around $90 currently, around 100 new oil and gas exploration companies were listed on AIM. For several years, investors couldn't get enough of them.

The oil price has stayed high but the huge exploration boom it stimulated has left everything from drilling rigs to geoscientists extremely expensive and hard to come by.

"In 2004 we drilled a well offshore Equatorial Guinea in 1500 meters of water and it cost us $12 million. I don't think anybody is drilling deep water West Africa now for less than $40-60 million, and there are wells over $100 million," said John Doran, Chief Executive of ROC Oil (ROC.AU). Other industry costs have suffered similar inflation.

Even for companies with the cash in hand, many are struggling to secure access to vital equipment in a world still dominated by global giants such as ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) or BP PLC (BP).

Tony O'Reilly Junior, Chief Executive of Ireland's Providence Resources PLC (PZQ.DB), said his company has only been able to drill one well this year, despite having several good prospects, because of the difficulty of securing rigs.

Many other executives operating everywhere from India to Angola described problems finding the right people and equipment.

Investors are realizing that the smaller pure exploration companies simply do not have the resources to execute their business plan, said Asbhy-Rudd of Tristone.

"The average capitalization on AIM at the end of 2006 was $70 million. $70 million is simply not big enough to be active on the international stage. It will cost $20 million to drill a well in the central North Sea," he said.

"You cannot have your entire capitalization used on three wells. If you drill your first two wells and they are dry, which statistically they will be, your share price will be in the toilet, as Wham found out," he said.

Wham Energy's share price almost halved shortly after listing on AIM in 2005 when its first well came up dry. The company struggled on for another 18 unsuccessful loss-making months before agreeing to be bought for around half its original market value by Venture Production PLC (VPC.LN) in August.

The shares of Wham's fellow AIM-listed explorers have consistently underperformed compared to better capitalized companies with their own production, like Venture.

A report published last month by Ernst and Young said half of small oil companies on AIM are trading below their issue price. Investors are starving these companies of capital with 65% of them having less than $20 million in net cash, the report said.

"The (capital) raisings that have occurred in 2007 have been from successful companies," like Imperial Energy (IEC.LN), which produces 10,000 barrels of oil a day, Ashby-Rudd said. "A lot of smaller companies have not been successful and have not been able to capitalize."

"If capital markets aren't open, they are going to run out of money within 12 months. That is what is driving the mergers and acquisitions market," Ashby-Rudd said.

In addition to the Wham transaction, Cairn Energy PLC (CNE.LN) last month bought AIM-listed explorers MedOil and Plectrum Petroleum.

"We believe that somewhere in the region of two-thirds (of AIM-listed oil and gas companies) will disappear over the next two years. They will be replaced by more mature companies who are in the wings and better capitalized," said Ashby-Rudd.

A report by equity analyst Tim Heeley at investment bank Daniel Stewart published Thursday identified companies like Europe-focused explorer Ascent Resources PLC (AST.LN) as being in the most difficult position, with just $5.5 million on their balance sheet, but without proven reserves. Twenty-three other AIM-listed companies are in a similar situation, the report said.

Companies like U.K. North Sea operator Nautical Petroleum (NPE.LN), which has 65 million barrels of proven and probable heavy oil reserves but is likely to face high development costs and will need to raise additional cash, have a mixed outlook, the report said.

Large reserves are themselves no guarantee of success as Russian gas operator Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG.LN) has discovered. "With 35 million barrels of oil equivalent (Victoria) should be well positioned. However constant problems, both technical and political, have prevented value add for investors and the stock currently sits at 70% of its listing price," Heeley said.

Most likely to survive the current turmoil are small companies like Faroe Petroleum PLC (FPM.LN). Well capitalized, with limited reserves but operating in low risk environments with growing production to generate cash flow, Heeley gave the company a buy rating.

Survivors of the current turmoil face a reasonable future. In addition to continued high oil prices, they are likely to benefit from an influx of capital from North America.

"A lot of North American investors have become frustrated with Canadian operations, the change of the tax royalty system in Alberta has been the final straw that broke the camel's back," said Ashby-Rudd. Funds and private equity groups based in North America are starting to allocate 15-25% of their capital internationally, he said.

"Despite the market turmoil, I believe the bank market is very open and very aggressive for well-structured oil and gas transactions," said ABN Amro's Hamilton.

Ashby-Rudd said Imperial Energy's latest capital raising was fulfilled within 45 minutes and Tristone raised $90 million for Faroe Petroleum last month.

"We've been involved in seven financings in the last two weeks, so the market is there for good companies," he said.

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=54001


This post thrown into the mix is somewhat confusing to my current mindthink:

Posted by: oilphant
In reply to: None Date:12/6/2007 7:14:59 PM
Post #of 113881

Recent chatter has only two Scenarios.

XOM takes out ERHC
SEO/Chrome + EEL walk with ERHC


Is SEO/Chrome the secret shareholder lender that will capture nearly 20% of EEL shares in a soon to be (today is the due day) transaction which will be followed by a takeover bid by Chrome or a Reverse Merger? Makes me wonder....both ERHC and EEL have similar trading action: Both beat to a pulp.

Things ARE developing IMHO. Oily and SFreed haven't changed their views of around January for "ERHC not to be ERHC". First step may be SEO/Chrome gaining controlling interest of EEL????? The 30 some million shares coupled with what he might already hold gives him quite a toe hold and maybe even controlling interest??? Is SEO the secret shareholder lender?

He (read: SEO) already has a partnership with Starcrest thru Petrobra's which is a very strong deepwater player who has already expressed an interest in STP EEZ. Of course with SEO and Wade C. not seeing eye to eye......it would be fitting for Wade C. to step aside.....which he recently did.

Kobi...and Petrobra's rumorings of deals in the JDZ/EEZ? Would Chevron or Anadarko join that mix? Remember, we still have the very clear ERHC co mention of an interest in North American oil properties.

Things are moving along IMHO....and about to become ultra interesting IMHO. I must say, however, that I STRONGLY hope ERHC isn't taken over via Chrome and EEL as Oily suggests. That would be very ugly.

Maybe, just maybe the Africom proposal will bring the US majors to the table and XOM or CVX will make it all good.

Lastly, I want to add that I appreciate the SFreeds and the Oilphants who I strongly believe give us a true glimpse of what might be occurring. It is greatly appreciated.

[balance_builder]

Merry Christmas to all ERHC'ers. We've endured another long and difficult year with this investment. Based on "THE WHEN" comments in the post I am replying to, our investment will make a very positive turn in early 2008 and this boards DD (yes, that very much includes Oilphant) will prove out to be worth the time we've spent posting and reading it.

I believe EEL is fitting like a glove here. They very much resemble the trading activity we've had to endure for a ridiculous amount of time. A master plan in the works IMHO and we might get a piece of that future action via our current holdings.

The recent 10K spilled the beans IMHO (and as posted) and fits well with the lawsuit settlements and SEO's August move.

I note Oilphant picked up a few additional membermarks in last few days. His recent posts outlining the fact that XOM hasn't yet bowed out of the JDZ hints that while they weren't successful at worming their way in.....it doesn't mean a 12'th hour deal won't be made. Hehehehe....but it'll cost them to play in the big or "real" game about to begin IMHO. Bruised, but with a history of making money, so they can't YET be ruled out. Like I said, 12'th hour?

It is ultra important to note the strange disappearance of a couple of posters (Read: Electick and Fishdog)....both Walter Brandhuber boys. Their silence is deafening to my ears with the dot connecting arrows zeroed in on the kill zone. The math doesn't lie thanks to Oilphant and his "injection" for new properties hints.

Again, I want to wish each and every one of you a joyous holiday season. I would also like to thank CHCR, Dougc and Dadd for sticking with this board thru all the years of rough seas and making it a readable board by keeping all the rift raft at a distance. I would also like to thank those of you who contributed throughout the year with DD as well as the humor exhibited on almost a daily basis (WD...I appreciate your humor).

May early 2008 bring us new wealth followed by a signed contract with a that long awaited rig of opportunity.

BB
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Posted by: balance_builder
In reply to: None Date:11/11/2007 7:20:34 AM
Post #of 114381

Dot Connecting, conjecture, thoughts, conspiracies, but maybe collaboration in the GOG.

Putting much of what we've read recently together, this is what I come up with. Let me preface this post by saying I wouldn't be quoting posts if I didn't think the posters had/have credibility. First, Richkans post where he said in part:

"SEO plans to add value to ERHC through a consortium of companies forming a new publicly held entity whereby ERHC becomes an integral part at a valuation somewhere below, but not far, Oilphant's <$6/share post, and in the process no longer will be ERHE.OB.

If I'm anywhere near right, this new entity would be a dominant force in the JDZ and Gulf of Guinea, as well as providing and offering the legitimate currency for major public investors. It would mark the beginning for extraordinary pps appreciation, even following the 20+ times "enhancement" soon to be enjoyed by current ERHE holders."
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22454081

Then you have oilphants most recent post where he re-reiterates several of his past posts stating:

"Strat1: Yes, I have no worries about ERHC.
ERHC will not be ERHC by January."
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24330477

Then we have Sfreed stating in part:

"Oilphant will be right (and no I dont know him); ERHC won't be ERHC soon. It may not be by year end, but not long after."
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/theelephantfields/message/12037

.....what I see in common is the very strange verbage of "ERHC won't be ERHC". If ERHC was going to be sold, the verbage used would be sold or bought out. That is not the case. If ERHC was going to be bought into, it would remain ERHC so that also is not the case. Presto....Richkans newly formed spinoff of a company.

Furthermore, lets keep in mind what ERHC has stated on a couple of occasions: "ERHC will be a changed company next year". They go into NO details but a new name with several new pieces added to it would also create the need for additional office space, right? Wouldn't we also want an expert such as Ledbetter to look at each participant "presents" they throw into this new spinoff? Recall this oilphant message which he wrote in 12/06 and confirmed as still being applicable as late as 10/15/07:

"Merry CXOMAS all!
5 players 5 presents
Do we create a Chrome message board in the New Year?"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15778023

.....and when questioned if the 5 players 5 presents were still alive he responded in part last month stating:

"BB: 1.5by5 is still live.."
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=23680560

And how much did he (Oily) indicate the deal would be worth:

"$ < 5!/20" which mathmatically reads under $6.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22166545

Oilphant also gave us a heads up on what some of the other presents thrown in might be when he asked:

"BB:What could a minnow do with a 150 million?"

......and answers a question of what it could be used for in repsonse to Homeports question when he states:

"HP: buys producing wells in the shallow end of the pool."
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=23415164

Now...if Oilphant knew this spinoff of collaboration in the GOG was going to take place even back in 2006, we regrettfully have to take heed to this post:

"forewarned 1/10 rs"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=20408224

Ok...now to try to fit it into a working, newly formed entity. We all know that ERHC has way way way too many outstanding shares so it is logical a reduction of shares would be a necessity. Oily's 1/10 post...or 10/1...makes sense. I would guess that one of the investment firms wanting a part of this action will buy up a portion of SEO's shareload and probably any shares that other investors want to cash out on. I would guess another player is going to pitch in $150 million dollars for a portion of shares at the co's new shareprice and these funds will go toward the purchasing of new properties...in the shallow end of the GOG.

Richkan thought of 20+X's enhancement (note: SEO recently publically mentioned he was working on enhancing his holdings) would put ERHC'ers at about Oily's predicted $6 sp IF...IF....IF...we climb to .30 cents from this point....which is within the range always discussed here "pre-drilling". Even Joe Shea long ago had this $6 figure.

Ok...assume at .30 cents we're halted. A "consortium of companies forming a new publicly held entity" is put to action, and ERHC shareholders are allowed to sell their shares of ERHC for a "about" $6 deal OR....OR....they can enlist 10 of their ERHC shares for one share of the newly formed company. This would put the start up price of the newly formed company at $60 if a 10:1 is put into play. Maybe less if SEO's shares go at a cheaper rate to get get this plan in motion.

Ok...now we have fair "current" value for ERHC along with a handsome premium for the long tiresome hold. We FINALLY get some new management to run the newly formed company with a stand up CEO/CFO that have recognizable names in the industry.


As far as to THE WHEN this could occur? Richkan stated in part:

"What I thought would take to two or three years to reach its potential has now taken five years, and it looks like next spring at the earliest for the big cat to be let out of the bag."
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21187446

Oilphant stated "by January" (previously posted). And SFreed indicated indicated "It may not be by year end, but not long after".

A price, a timeframe and a very big deal. How big? If ERHC's throwing in its billions....how many others will do the same? I'm guessing this new co will operate the entire JDZ and quite possibly the EEZ. Maybe EEL will throw their interests into the mix? Somebody has kept them "under their thumb" as well. More importantly, they're updated strategy is to farm out their interests and they (the co) has indicated this should be in place by early 08. Hmmm...early 08...didn't we just read about this same timeframe earlier in this post???? Who else?? Didn't Richan also indicate in part:

"Further, I'd not be surprised to see the lamb lie with the lion."

When Addax and ERHC had to take the 9% Godsonic interest to arbitration with Addax, I got the indication ERHC wouldn't be simply swept up by Addax. A sweep away and this wouldn't be going to arbitration IMHO.

Who else might be involved in this collective effort? Here are some names to be thrown in as mere possibilities keeping in mind that oily mentioned 5 players:

CVX
Addax
EEL
AFREN
APC
Aramco
MPE (silent particpation due to WB's conflict of interest)
SNP
XOM??

Powerhouse. Major powerhouse with the potential to grow as Richkan cleverly stated,

"If I'm anywhere near right, this new entity would be a dominant force in the JDZ and Gulf of Guinea, as well as providing and offering the legitimate currency for major public investors. It would mark the beginning for extraordinary pps appreciation,..."

You tell me guys....would this be worth the wait? Would you tie your current shares into a company with this type of potential future earnings? There's more which ties in that some could have known about this for many many many months:

Addax has been putting together a team of experts for this exploration for a long time. Simply NOT just for the the operating of their sole block they operatate (B-4), but rather for the JDZ and probably EEZ. Chevron adds to the mix by putting their top guy on the Addax team "Jeffrey Schrull".

"The company is “building an expert, in-house, sub-surface interpretation and drilling technical team” after a year of acquisitions placed the company in deepwater at JDZ Blocks 2, 3 and 4 and OPL291 offshore Nigeria. Capital spending shot up during the year by 109 percent to US$773."
http://www.oilgas24.com/bm/Gas/Exploration_Gas/addax-affirms-deepwater-gulf-of-guinea-stake.shtml

Why isn't ERHC concerned? They don't need to be. Prior to any involvement in a deal of this magnitude, the Powerhouses would have to "clean" ERHC. To do this, a full scale government investigation would have to be put into play...ah....bring in WB's presence at the Houston office (he lives in Europe) for a freak coincidence as the FBI tears gathers up all 118 box of ERHC related materials. WB even talks with the raiders (without an attorney present). This cleansing was a step needed to move forward and also knowing it would justify the thumb on ERHC's sp by keeping out new money.

Will it be a posterchild type of new co including the Chinese, Swiss, United States and even the Saudi's?????

Certainly ERHC could now "stand on its own" and wouldn't need the assistance of SEO. Now with the worlds powerhouses running the show. Certainly CVX would drill off structure and then tite hole all the information they obtain and the early words of a massive find...largest ever....astonished....would be put to rest immediately.

I invite any thoughts regarding this "dot connecting" scenario. Even if you have no thoughts or nothing to add on how it could work, do you like the theory????