M3...
Thanks for the kind thoughts. I do not have the ability to keep up with the very short term trading market at the moment so have been trading mostly for the intermediate term with swing positions. I took some profits in the gold stocks (not enough, as it turns out) and have recently been reloading in the pullback. I still believe that gold stocks will be a good investment (one of the few long side options) as the $USD continues to decline, as it almost surely will. Other than the golds, all my trading has been to the short side.
As for the equities, I believe the NAZ appears to have already peaked and put in a top while the S&P/DJ is probably in the process of putting in one now. If I am correct in my macro view of the economy, the tops being made now will be of the multi-year variety, not just a short term local top. I look for the markets to head down before the elections (perhaps quite soon), not after as almost all conventional prognosticators are predicting. As the bear awakens from its artificially induced hibernation, the decline should be quite large from the current astronomical valuation levels but the pace should be mitigated by an aggressive war being fought by the Fed to hold them up. AG and the Fed know that the economic "recovery" to date is more hype than substance and unsustainable at the moment (demonstrated by its reluctance to reload its ammunition by raising rates) and they also know that a downturn in the markets at this time would be a devastating blow to the Greenspan Gambit of an asset inflation based economic recovery. They will do everything in their considerable powers to prevent a broad market decline.
The underlying reason behind my pessimism is that the economy, for all the reasons I have stated in the past, is not in a solid, sustainable recovery and I look for a recession to be in our future relatively near term -- if correct, it will probably be relatively deep, long lasting, and global. The bad news is that the conditions are favorable for it to be more than just a recession. One trigger for such a disaster could be that interest rates may be forced to rise during the recession (a disaster for any hopes of a recovery) as a result of the huge imbalances in the economy such as the unsustainable internal and external deficits, enormously high public and private debt, and the global dependence on the US.
Just my opinions, though, and far outside the mainstream.
mlsoft
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