Replies to post #2145 on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[DewDiligence]

Baraclude Sales Ramp 2005-Present

[Updated with 4Q07 sales.]


2Q05 $5M (US launch Apr 05)
3Q05 $2M
4Q05 $5M
1Q06 $11M (China launch Feb 06)
====
First year on market: $23M


2Q06 $14M
3Q06 $22M (Japan, partial EU launches Jul 06)
4Q06 $36M
1Q07 $45M (added to AASLD guidelines Feb 07)
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Second year on market: $117M


2Q07 $59M
3Q07 $72M
4Q07 $99M
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$230M for first 9 months of third year on market


My prior sales forecast for Baraclude’s third full year on the market had been $320M, but that’s evidently too low. I’m raising the forecast to $345M, which implies $115M in 1Q08.