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lee kramer

02/16/04 7:05 PM

#205581 RE: laza #205578

Gonna have dinner with Suzy, stop in, back in a while.
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Sherlock356

02/16/04 7:29 PM

#205583 RE: laza #205578

I doubt oil production has peaked if Opec is considering cutbacks....also imo eventually when Iraq is pumping hard that will be a major addition at the margin imo.
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cy esp

02/16/04 7:42 PM

#205585 RE: laza #205578

Very possibly. Probably very few if any very large OIL discoveries remain to be made. There are alot of small to mid sized oil fields to be discovered, so with higher prices more marginal, higher cost fields can be developed. As prices rise, consumption will fall and alternative energy will be more competative. But this is a 20-60 year time frame.

With sufficiently high prices, the middle east will accelerate drilling and bring on additional prodution. The world reserve to production ratio of 1200 (billion bbl)/30 (billion bbl per year) is 40 years and is actually quite long compared to most companies (8-10 years), so some production acceleration could be expected.

Natural gas is another story. Fuel switching from oil to gas and natural gas development will add alot more fossil fuel reserves.

So, expect higher prices over time. Expect alternative energy to gain market share very gradually but inexorably. Expect petroleum to be used by your great grand kids for plastics manufacture feedstock rather than fuel.