Replies to post #2076 on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[grandpatb]

SHOW ME THE MONEY!

[DewDiligence]

3Q07 Hepsera share of US scripts:

Treatment-naïve: 38%
All patients: 46% (down from 48% in the prior quarter)

(Source: 3Q07 GILD CC)

[upndown1313]

Does this really impact IDIX now that they have sold this product to their partner? A 15% royalty (if that is what it is) is nice but probably won't drive pps to any great extent for quite a while. Any thoughts on this?

[DewDiligence]

Hepsera has finally plateaued: worldwide 4Q07 sales were $77M. This was up 31% vs 4Q06 but down 3% vs 3Q07 (#msg-26219426).

Although Hepsera still has a 45% Rx share of the US HBV market (according to today’s GILD CC), US dollar sales in 4Q07 fell 11% relative to 3Q07. (Some of this drop could have been caused by inventory adjustments.)

Why the reversal? Hepsera is clearly not the most efficacious option for treating HBV (#msg-24374381) and this is slowly but surely manifesting itself in lower sales in the first-line setting.

As has been noted on this board many times, patients who are stable on a given HBV therapy will not switch to a newer and better agent unless resistance develops, so sales of Hepsera will not fall precipitously.