Gfp neglected to cite his sources:
Belushi,J. et al, Journal of Animal House Studies, Toga Press, 1978
Re: the expected pps response to a positive IND decision:
I differentiate between the kind of immediate, transient burst that we sometimes see, and then often dissipates, and a shift to a sustainable upward progression. I would be surprised if a positive IND decision itself spurs anything more immediate than a modest gain. But it will set the stage for sustainable price recovery, altering the perception of the past 18 months that nothing ever goes right for Cortex (an incorrect perception, since the toxicity concern turned out to be an artifact--where would the pps be if it had turned out to be real?). The initiation of Ph II RD studies would help to maintain that improvement, even before a BP deal.
If I was not a shareholder, I'd probably wait for the IND decision, since the immediate downside risk is acute, the upward potential gradual. Gradual, but big.
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