did you notice dahlman rose's estimates for 2008? 33.27M..... if we are already 65% ahead of their Q2 target, just one quarter after DR initiated coverage, what sort of upgrades might be in the future?
two issues to keep in mind: we can infer this 2008 figure is going to be light simply by factoring in deep down's huge beat in the Q2 filing along the growth curve, and also, i've been told by DR these numbers don't include mako yet.
so let's do a few quick calcs. since mako is doing 6.46M in 2006, once they are acquired by DPDW let's say they grow revenues by 50% in 2008. imo this is conservative, and it doesn't include any impact from mako on Q4 of 2007 either:
6.46 + 50% (3.23M) = 9.69 for mako only.
now let's boost DR's 2008 estimates by 10% to account for a Q2 beat and any additional upside surprise in organic growth:
33.27 + 3.327 = 36.597
9.69M for mako + 36.597M (DR's estimate + 10%) = 46.29M for 2008.
going off the Q2 filing, margins are now roughly 19%... and mako should boost this, so i think using 23% for net margins would be pretty conservative.
that gives us 46.29 X 23% = 10.65M net profit.
10.65M/67.1M OS = .16 eps.
what's the best multiple to use? OII has a pe ratio of 24, is much larger than DPDW, and is much further along in their growth cycle.
.16 eps X 30 pe ratio = $4.80 share price by december 2008.
sounds great doesn't it? but let's keep in mind this calculation doesn't include any new acquisitions for DPDW in 2008, or any beyond mako for the remainder of 2007.
and it also assumes there will only be 50% growth in mako during the next 16 months and no Q4 07 impact from mako either.... i think most here would agree these figures are conservative.
so... let's just say "well beyond 5 bucks a share" by december of 2008. jmho..!
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