Replies to post #197930 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[limtex]

ZH - isn't it just that there is no reason to buy stocks now. The next time will be the run-up before the next earnings if they are up to expectation.

But the next time people will be that much more cautious as the election approaches and the shadow of the administration of President Kelly begins to loom.

And so on for the June and Sept qrtrs.

There are only two glimmers of hope for the rally. First is Mr G who surely won't want to go down in history as having put a father and son out of the White House and also I guess Mr Bush must know that if the markets have a "correction" then he is going to be "correctded" out of office.

Secondly the economy might of its own just perform very well.

In the meantime my guess is the bear is back.

Best,

L

[Gizmo]

Do the turnips have any playable upside moves on the way to sub 1900?

Gizmo

[ezey]

Zeev target on NVLS ?
I made 0.19 35.21 to 35.40
second try @ 35.09 Out half @ 34.45 ouch
try to escape in morning with some hide left
ezey

[Alexander]

Zeev

I think this correction is for real. Csco's report next week could accelerate the correction. The stock is trading at a trailing p/s multiple of 10, which is OK if you are a fast grower with impressive margins. exxpecations in csco's stock are just too high.

Historically (99-00 not included) csco p/s multiple has fluctuated between 5 and 14, but that was when sales were growing at +30% annually with impressive margins. Now, you have still impressive margins, but not the grwoth rate.

Anyway, what's the likelihood we fall below 1955 and test 1850?

Alexander